Next month’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe took on a new layer of fascination when Ghaiyyath blew apart what was supposed to be a race for the Grosser Preis Von Baden, winning by 14 lengths. If you haven’t seen it yet, you can do so here and I strongly recommend giving it a look.
A powerfully built four-year-old, Ghaiyyath eased to the front with a little under a circuit to race and soon had his rivals on the rack. They were toiling behind him at the home turn and, impressively, he pulled further clear in the straight, scoring by an official 14 lengths, though apparently it would have been given as 12 or 13 in Britain.
Ghaiyyath is trained in Newmarket by Charlie Appleby but, if you’d lost track of him, it’s probably because he hasn’t raced in this country since 2017, when he won the Autumn Stakes half an hour before U S Navy Flag (remember him?) won the Dewhurst. Ghaiyyath was supposed to be a Derby contender then but didn’t run again until the following September.
He’s been sidelined again this year, from late April until Sunday, so we’re not looking at a robust sort here. But the third horse in the Grosser Preis was the German Derby winner, previously unbeaten this year, so Ghaiyyath appears to be a huge talent. His Racing Post Rating for this run is 128, a higher figure than Enable has managed since her first Arc in 2017.
Making all the running would be a lot harder in the Arc but Ghaiyyath is a strong traveller rather than a tearaway and he doesn’t have to go from the front if there’s a strong pace on. He’s down to 12-1 for the Longchamp race from Sunday morning’s 33-1.
The Post has described him as “a stonking bet” at the 16-1 that was available on Sunday night but there are things to worry about if you feel like chasing the price down. In view of his history, he’s no certainty to be as fit for Paris as he was here and he might be best fresh. And he has to give a 3lb sex allowance to Enable. Have I mentioned that before?
Mondays’ best bets
It looks like Oisin Murphy is in for another productive day at Chepstow on his way to his first champion jockey’s title but I’m fielding against him in the third race, in which there might be some value in the 14-1 about J’Ouvert (2.45). Making her first start for David Evans and her handicap debut as well, this three-year-old filly showed some ability on her second start when second to a Godolphin winner at Chelmsford in February.
She’s been with Evans for a couple of months and, while his yard is not in brilliant form, she could be dangerous off a rating of 64 with a capable 7lb claimer aboard. She has six winning siblings and faces five rivals who are relatively exposed. Having been allowed to drift to 20-1, she has been the subject of some support. Obviously I’d like to see more in the last hour before the race.
Earlier, Allez Sophia (2.15) is fairly priced at 9-4 for a novice race in which she represents the in-form Eve Johnson Houghton.
The nap is Chil Chil (4.25) in the opening race of Windsor’s twilight meeting. She scooted up on her handicap debut five days ago, having had a wind operation, and looks well in under a penalty. The market sees this, of course, and she’s 5-6.
At the other end of that card, I’m interested by Sir Michael Stoute’s Dubious Affair (7.30). She was eight lengths clear of the third when runner-up on her handicap debut and gets to run from the same mark. I like her at 2-1 against Culture, who needs the cheekpieces to work for a second time.
Chepstow
1.45 Carmel 2.15 Allez Sophia (nb) 2.45 J’ouvert 3.15 Alrajaa 3.45 Aluqair 4.15 Freckles 4.45 Mr Nice Guy
Brighton
2.00 King’s View 2.30 Daily Times 3.00 Nervous Nerys 3.30 De Little Engine 4.00 Esspeegee 4.30 Hassaad 5.05 Wiley Post
Windsor
4.25 Chil Chil (nap) 4.55 Ivadream 5.30 Max’s Thunder 6.00 Benny And The Jets 6.30 Elsie Violet 7.00 Lumination 7.30 Dubious Affair
Hexham
4.35 Chocolat Noir 5.10 Reverse The Charge 5.40 Transpennine Star 6.10 Inca Gold 6.40 Prancing Oscar 7.10 Classical Milano 7.40 Raashdy
