SOCIAL distancing may need to be in place for “most of a year” to tackle coronavirus, according to the country’s top experts.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE), which is advising the government on its response to the pandemic, has today published a report on its evidence.
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The team of scientists have insisted social distancing measures will need to be in place for “at least most of a year” to stop intensive care units being overwhelmed.
It comes after Boris Johnson said last night that the UK could “turn the tide” against the illness in 12 weeks.
The newly-published advice from SAGE, which was agreed on Monday, says that the severity of social distancing measures could alternate during the period
However, the experts say that “stricter” measures – such as school closures – would need to be in place for at least half of the year in order to keep cases at a level the NHS can cope with.
The report states: “It was agreed that the addition of both general social distancing and school closures – to case isolation, household isolation and social distancing of vulnerable groups – would be likely to control the epidemic when kept in place for a long period.
“It was agreed that a policy of alternating between periods of more and less strict social distancing measures could plausibly be effective at keeping the number of critical care cases within capacity.
“These would need to be in place for at least most of a year.
“Under such as policy, at least half of the year would be spent under the stricter social distancing measures.”
The document says that the triggers for measures to be put in place or lifted could vary according to different regions.
There would be a two to three-week delay between measures being put into place and their impact being felt in intensive care units, it added.
This is an incredibly fast-moving, developing situation and as part of our collective efforts to give the clearest and most reliable scientific advice
Sir Patrick Vallance
Government chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said: “This is an incredibly fast-moving developing situation and as part of our collective efforts to give the clearest and most reliable scientific advice, SAGE has and continues to draw upon a huge range of experts and a huge range of evidence.
“The UK is home to experts who are at the forefront of their chosen fields and we are making full use of their expertise to grow our understanding of Covid-19 as we work tirelessly to tackle this disease.
“The collective evidence we have published today has played a considerable role in shaping our recommendations on when, how and why the government have made the interventions it has so far.”
‘Turn the tide’
On Thursday, the Prime Minister said the tide on Covid-19 could be turned in the next 12 weeks but added he could not promise that the UK would definitely be on a downward slope from the peak of the virus.
He said: “I cannot stand here and tell you that by the end of June we will be on the downward slope.
“It’s possible but I simply can’t say that for certain. Of course not, we don’t know where we are, we don’t know how long this thing will go on for but what I can say is that this is going to be finite, we will turn the tide and I can see how to do it within the next 12 weeks.”
It comes as:
More to self-isolate
It comes as Health Secretary Matt Hancock said people undergoing treatment for cancer and others who form part of a group of around 1.4 million people will receive specific advice on what to do to keep themselves safe from coronavirus.
At present, anyone with an underlying health condition such as those who usually receive an NHS flu jab, people with weakened immune systems and anyone over 70 is told to be “particularly stringent in following social distancing measures”.
But those who are at even higher risk of severe illness from Covid-19, including recipients of donor organs, those on active chemotherapy or radiotherapy, people with blood cancers and those with severe chest conditions will be given more tailored advice.
Mr Hancock told Sky News: “The first thing we’re going to do is set out exactly what conditions that applies to.
We expect about 1.4 million people to then get a communication from the NHS to say that they are part of this and what they need to do
Matt Hancock
“We expect about 1.4 million people to then get a communication from the NHS to say that they are part of this and what they need to do.
“Many of these people have pre-existing health conditions and so will be very worried right now, and I understand that, and they’ll need very specific sets of action. For instance, how do you go about still getting your chemo if you have cancer whilst also social-distancing?
“If you have cancer it’s particularly important to stay away from other people, but you also of course have got to keep going with your chemotherapy.”
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Mr Hancock added: “These are some of the most difficult and challenging cases so we’ll be getting in contact with them, but if people think that they are on this list and don’t receive a communication from the NHS, then they also need to get in contact.
“So that is under way, the money was announced for it yesterday. A combination of money to the NHS and money to councils because they’ve got a very big part to play in keeping people safe.”
It comes as an army of 65,000 retired nurses and doctors have been told “Your NHS Needs You” in the battle against coronavirus.
Medical students and trainee nurses are also being invited to join the fight — while members of the public have been asked if they can help, too.
The Prime Minister said he expects the tide to be turned in the fight within 12 weeks, as he urged the public to follow social distancing advice and for businesses to “stand by your employees”.
But he implied that this is only if the public heeds the social distancing guidance, saying: “I know it’s tough, I know it’s difficult… but please, please follow the advice.”
But pictures have shown boozed-up Brits spilling out of clubs and bars in recent days.
The PM also said British experts expect to start trials for a vaccine against the virus within a month, although expectations are that a vaccine will take at least a year.
Mr Johnson added that a “game-changer” antibody test was “coming down the track” which could identify whether somebody somebody had become immune to the disease so they could return to their daily life.
He has pledged to massively increase testing to up to 250,000 a day, which combined with collective action and scientific progress he said would save “many, many thousands of lives”.
