The Conservatives’ controversial HS2 railway line is in the spotlight once again amid growing speculation that potential successors to Theresa May might scrap the £56bn project.
Under current plans, the High Speed 2 line will connect London to Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester, with a total of around 330 miles of track. The first stage of the line, between the capital and Birmingham, is due to open in 2026 and should see trains running at up to 225mph, with the rest of the line expected to be completed by 2033.
However, many critics have raised concerns about the burgeoning budget, reported mismanagement and claims that the line may never extend beyond Birmingham – with some arguing that the whole thing should be abandoned.
Indeed, a new YouGov study for The Times found that 57% of Conservative Party members want to cancel HS2, while only 32% are in favour of keeping it.
So what are the arguments for and against ditching the project?
Arguments for scrapping
A report from the Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee this week warned that that the costs of HS2 “appear to be out of control”. Sir Terry Morgan, former chair of HS2 and Crossrail, told the group that “nobody knows” what the final cost will be.
Support for HS2 is also fading among northern communities, with many now favouring the Northern Powerhouse Rail (NPR) project – a programme of rail infrastructure improvements north of Birmingham that has been dubbed HS3. In fact, the Lords committee has heard evidence that this project will deliver greater benefits to northern cities than HS2.
Earlier this year, Professor Stephen Glaister, former chair of the Office of Road and Rail, told Channel 4’s Dispatches that HS2 has not been thought through. “You might ask the question what else could you do? You could give larger sums of money to Manchester to Birmingham, to Newcastle, and let them do as they saw best for their local communities,” he said.
Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, has also voiced doubts. Asked whether he would prioritise HS2 or linking up cities in the north of England, the Labour MP said: “We need both but if that’s what it came down to I would choose rail investment west to east across the north of England. I believe that is the single highest transport investment priority for our country”.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Liz Truss has made HS2 a candidate for next autumn’s public spending review, and has extolled the virtues of more buses and better trains within northern cities. Addressing a finance conference in London, Truss said: “Leeds is the largest city in Europe without its own mass transit network. Birmingham is 33% less productive than a city of its size would be in France, according to a recent study, because of the poor quality of cross-city transport.”
Leaders of northern city councils “backed HS2 because it was the only transport investment in sight”, says The Guardian’s Simon Jenkins. “Cancellation would enable Truss to press the go button on HS3, and produce instant ecstasy,” he continues.
In another nail in the HS2 coffin, the growth in rail traffic has also stalled. Seats “are generally available on routes to the Northwest, undermining the last refuge argument that the extra capacity of a new line is desperately needed”, says the Financial Times’ Neil Collins.
Arguments against scrapping
The Department for Transport insists that the issue is not a question of “investing in either HS2 or other transport across the country – we are delivering both”.
“On top of this, the full benefits of Northern Powerhouse Rail can only be realised off the back of HS2 – we are clear the North needs both, not either/or,” a spokesperson said.
Local government and business leaders in the affected areas have also warned that any decision to scrap the rail project would undermine Britain’s “national prosperity for decades to come”.
In a letter to the Treasury this week, more than 20 prominent figures including Andy Street, the Conservative mayor for the West Midlands, insist that HS2 is already attracting investment and caution against any attempt to halt the scheme, reports The Times.
“Altogether, city regions around the route have plans to create nearly 500,000 jobs and add billions to the UK economy,” the letter says. “Poor connections following decades of under-investment in the rail network between our major cities have been holding the UK back for far too long.”
Supporters of the project also point to the effect that scrapping it would have on local morale. Ditching the project could leave the Tories “in opposition for decades”, argues Henri Murison, director of the Northern Powerhouse Partnership, which provides a voice for the region’s businesses and civic leaders.
“I would predict that cancelling HS2 would send a very negative message to some of those communities and they would be punished at the ballot box. It could finish the Tory party in the north of England for a very long time,” Murison said.
Others argue that the scheme is too advanced to pull out now. “More than 900 properties worth almost £600m have been bought up to make way for the route,” says The Guardian.
“In practice, scrapping it probably just means cancelling the section north of Birmingham, which is where the main benefits are,” a figure close to a leading Tory leadership candidate told the newspaper.
That view is shared by Sir Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office. Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Westminster Hour, he said: “Pretty soon now we will have sunk so much in buying land, building track and so on that it would be very difficult not to at least go to Birmingham.
“I think for somebody to pull HS2 now, we would have to be in a lot of economic trouble.”
