Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is gearing up for a battle with Westminster after publishing legislation that lays the groundwork for a second independence referendum.
The SNP-led government’s Referendums (Scotland) Bill provides a legal framework for the holding of referendums “on any matters within Scotland’s control”. It is expected to be on the statute book by the end of this year.
This would leave the way open for a fresh independence referendum – known as IndyRef2 – as early as next year, with Sturgeon this week saying that the “latter half” of 2020 would be the “right time for a new poll”.
Haven’t we been here before?
Yes. In 2014, the Scottish people voted 55%-45% to stay part of the EU after a bitterly fought referendum which divided the country. Although the vote prompted an outpouring of emotion on both sides, public opinion ultimately appeared to be swayed by the economic argument against leaving the UK.
Unionists from all parties joined together to warn of the cost to Scotland of going it alone in what some described as a precursor to the doomed “Project Fear” strategy which failed to swing the EU referendum from Remain.
So what has changed?
The first referendum was described as a “once-in-a-generation” vote, but the SNP says the subsequent decision by the UK to leave the EU inexorably altered the terms of the last debate and effectively nullified the result.
The party argues that 62% of Scots voted to stay in the European Union in 2016, a far bigger margin than the 55% who voted to remain part of the UK back in 2014.
“It is arguable that the United Kingdom that Scotland voted to be a part of in 2014 no longer exists,” writes Louis Staples in The Independent. The fact that a majority of Scots face the prospect of being taken out of Europe against their will has only strengthened the case for a second referendum.
Despite unionist hopes that voters would punish Sturgeon for pushing ahead with a second referendum, supporters of independence have been further boosted by the strong showing of the SNP at last week’s European parliamentary elections.
“The once frequent assertions by unionist campaign Better Together that the only way to protect Scotland’s EU membership was to reject independence gave Sturgeon leverage to cast herself as a trusted voice on Brexit, while highlighting the benefits of an independent Scotland within the EU,” says Staples.
Speaking before she held talks in Dublin with Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) Leo Varadkar, Sturgeon told the BBC the scale of the SNP’s triumph should send a clear signal to parties at Westminster that Scotland had again emphatically rejected Brexit.
“Scotland said no to Brexit in 2016. This result makes clear: we meant it,” she said.
What happens next?
Setting out her plans last month, Sturgeon raised the idea of holding a citizen’s assembly on independence to consider what kind of country Scotland should be and help people make an informed choice about the future.
However, the new legislation does not include the timing of a possible second referendum or the question that would be put to voters, leaving these to be set by secondary regulations.
The Scottish Government has previously said this could happen if Westminster granted Holyrood the power to stage another vote via a Section 30 order “something outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May repeatedly refused to do,” says The National.
Sturgeon is seeking to ratchet up pressure on Westminster by saying “it is essential the UK Government recognises that it would be a democratic outrage if it seeks to block such a referendum – indeed, any such stance would, in my view, prove to be utterly unsustainable”.
The SNP has also indicated it could use the current impasse in Westminster over Brexit to its advantage.
Although pro-independence parties only secured 46.2% of Thursday’s vote, the party’s leader in the House of Commons Ian Blackford told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that the SNP’s price for joining an anti-Brexit alliance at Westminster would be the promise of a second independence referendum.
He said the SNP’s triumph in the European elections made it “crystal clear” the party was entitled to use the mandate it had won in the 2016 Scottish parliament elections to stage a fresh vote on leaving the UK.
“I simply say to Westminster that you have to respect the sovereignty of the people of Scotland,” he said.
Who would win IndyRef2?
In light of recent political upheaval, Ferret Fact Service has looked at nearly 100 polls involving around 100,000 people since the vote in September 2014 to see whether the Scottish electorate’s views have changed on the independence question.
While the majority of polls have remained broadly in favour of staying in the UK, “some political events appear to have shifted public opinion, although there is little evidence that they have had lasting impact overall,” says the site. There is also a wide discrepancy depending on how the independence question is framed.
In October 2018, polling found that Scots would vote for independence if the UK were to crash out of the EU without a deal but would vote against breaking up the Union in other circumstances.
There is some sign that voters would punish the SNP for forcing through another vote without a clear majority of support from the public. Unionists point to the 2017 election when the party lost a third of its seats after campaigning on an IndyRef2 platform.
Looking to tap into this discontent Pamela Nash, chief executive of the pro-UK campaign group Scotland in Union, told The Scotsman: “With a constitutional crisis over Brexit, the very last thing the country and the economy needs is deeper division and greater uncertainty”.
Describing the plan as “unwanted” she claimed “only a fifth of voters back her proposal to force a divisive second independence referendum on the country by 2021, and a third of former Yes voters now want to remain in the UK”.
Much will depend, however, on how the next few months play out and such factors as whether the UK has left the EU by the time of the vote, who will be occupying Downing Street and the state of the opposition.
“With a huge amount of help from Labour and the Tories, Sturgeon is succeeding in equating unionism with Brexit. The union is now tarred with the Brexit brush, and Scotland is still opposed to leaving the EU” says Staples.
Boris Johnson, who is frontrunner to be the next prime minister, is hugely disliked north of the border. He has reportedly been shunned by Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, who will be crucial to mobilising union support.
With Labour also bitterly divided and possibly tainted by facilitating a Tory Brexit, far more so than in 2014, Sturgeon’s main opposition would be fractured and vulnerable.
Having “weathered the storm and come out stronger” Indyref2 “now seems inevitable” says Staples, and “if forced to choose between membership of the UK or the EU, this latest election result hints that Scotland picking the former is now far from certain”.
