More than an objective, a fantasy. Italy dream of reaching the quarter-finals at Japan 2019 – something they have failed to do in any of the previous eight World Cups. They came close on three consecutive occasions – at Australia 2003, France 2007 and New Zealand 2011 – exiting each time with defeat in a decisive head-to-head at the end of the group stage. First there was Wales in Canberra, then Scotland in Saint-Étienne (David Bortolussi’s 77th-minute penalty, which would have put Italy ahead, flew just wide of the posts) and Ireland in Dunedin.
For the Azzurri to pull off the feat this time, assuming there are no surprises from Namibia and Canada, they will need to beat one of South Africa or New Zealand. Even after a victory against the Springboks in Florence in 2017, it is very hard to believe it could happen. In fact it seems almost impossible. The international rankings speak clearly: Italy are not one of the best eight teams in the world.
The group led by Conor O’Shea is a mix of veterans and young players. Regardless of who coaches them in future, this will be the base of the team going forward. That is why, regardless of how this World Cup adventure ends, it is important to return from Japan with heads held high. The 31 called-up players have an average of just under 30 caps per head, a figure that would be much lower if it were not for the centurions Sergio Parisse, Alessandro Zanni and Leonardo Ghiraldini. Only nine played at England 2015. Beyond the three already mentioned, those are Andrea Lovotti, Guglielmo Palazzani, Tommaso Allan, Carlo Canna, Michele Campagnaro and Tommaso Benvenuti.
The loosehead Lovotti is the one who has featured most in the O’Shea era, which began in June 2016, playing in every match. Italy have played 39 games under the Irish coach, and the damning reality is that they have won fewer than 20% of those. Since Italy entered the Six Nations in 2000, the only worse stretch came under New Zealander Brad Johnstone (five wins in 27 games) at the start of the millennium.
The team is desperately short of cover in some positions, especially so at scrum-half. Edoardo Gori is out of the picture, Marcello Violi is injured. The only ones left are Tito Tebaldi, Palazzani (with limited experience) and Callum Braley, a player who emerged outside of Italy and has only very recently been brought into the group. At loosehead prop and inside centre, too, the alternatives to Lovotti and Luca Morisi are limited.
The pre-World Cup friendlies, leaving aside one disproportionate statement against Russia (85 points and 13 insignificant tries) have not offered any particularly reassuring indications. In defence, bodies are spread too wide and in attack, despite the return of the ferret-like Matteo Minozzi after a year out injured, the manoeuvres lack fluidity or tangible results. Among few certainties, the back row of Parisse, Jake Polledri and Braam Steyn is a guarantee at any level. It’s not much, but it’s worth clinging to. After that, Italy must take one game at a time. If they can win the first two, after that there will be nothing to lose.
• Andrea Buongiovanni is a sports writer for La Gazzetta dello Sport.
