Jeremy Corbyn will on Tuesday afternoon seek to resist pressure from MPs, MEPs, union leaders and members the UK’s opposition Labour party to promise a second referendum on any form of Brexit deal.
The Labour leader has only promised a “confirmatory referendum” on what he calls a damaging Tory Brexit. He does not want one on his own preferred softer form of Brexit, which would involve a permanent customs union with the EU.
But senior members of the shadow cabinet, almost a third of the candidates in May’s elections to the European Parliament, and three top union leaders are calling for a cast-iron commitment for a new vote, a topic set to come to a head at the party’s national executive committee on Tuesday.
Several MPs raised the issue at the weekly meeting of the Parliamentary Labour party on Monday night — although not all argued in favour of a second referendum in all circumstances.
One of those pushing for the change in policy, Bermondsey MP Neil Coyle, told the gathering his local association had lost close to 500 members over the party’s reluctance to back a second EU poll.
In theory Tuesday’s Europhile push could alter the battleground in the May 23 European elections — and a possible general election later this year — by casting Labour as a clear pro-Remain party.
It could also prove fatal to the current round of Conservative-Labour talks on Brexit, since Theresa May’s government is even more opposed to a second referendum than it is to a customs union.
But there were signs that the Labour leader would hold off the Europhiles, given that he enjoys a majority of loyalists in the NEC. “The prevailing view is that the party will fudge it yet again,” said one well-placed Labour activist.
Tom Watson, Labour’s deputy leader, has urged members to lobby Mr Corbyn directly to change the current policy, warning that the party must seek to defeat Nigel Farage’s newly formed Brexit party rather than continue to “sit on the fence” and offer only “mealy-mouthed” support for a second referendum.
Polls suggest that the Brexit party is duelling for the lead with Labour in the European elections.
Tuesday’s NEC meeting is intended to decide Labour’s manifesto for the contest — an issue that became still more sensitive after an initial run of Labour campaign leaflets for the vote did not mention a second referendum, even in passing.
On Tuesday morning Mr Watson walked out of a shadow cabinet meeting early, protesting that members were not being properly consulted on the European manifesto.
Mr Corbyn, a life-long Eurosceptic, has long resisted attempts to reverse Brexit, not least because about a third of Labour voters backed Leave in 2016.
People familiar with the discussions suggest he is pushing for a continuation of the current heavily nuanced position, which envisages a referendum on Mrs May’s Brexit deal but not necessarily on an alternative shaped by Mr Corbyn.
Meanwhile, there is scepticism among both Labour and Conservative ranks on whether the cross-party talks on a common approach to Brexit will produce a breakthrough.
Although the latest round of discussions on Monday was described by Downing Street as “productive”, Mrs May’s aides say that unless there is an agreement within a week, the government may have to call time on them.
Shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer and shadow foreign secretary Emily Thornberry have joined Mr Watson in pushing for a second referendum in any circumstances — a position that could torpedo the discussions with the Tories.
The three shadow ministers’ position has also been backed by the general secretaries of three powerful unions — Unison, the GMB and Usdaw.
By contrast, Mr Corbyn’s ally Len McCluskey, leader of Unite — the largest union in Britain — is a strong supporter of Brexit.
Meanwhile 22 out of the party’s 70 candidates for the European elections have pledged to fight not only for a universal second referendum but also for an unambiguous policy to remain in the EU.
Andrew Lewin, chair of the Remain Labour group, urged Mr Corbyn to listen to the “overwhelming majority” of the party’s members and voters.
But many Corbyn loyalists — including most of the nine constituency Labour party representatives on the NEC — are expected to vote against the bid to harden up the commitment to a referendum.
Last autumn the party agreed at its annual conference to back another referendum if other options — such as forcing a general election — proved impossible.
Mr Corbyn’s team, along with some members of the shadow cabinet, have resisted a commitment to a referendum in all circumstances partly because it is afraid of a backlash from Eurosceptic voters.
Most of Labour’s target top 50 seats in any forthcoming general election voted Leave in 2016.
In an indication that Labour may face less competition than it feared from other, more pro-EU forces, the new Change UK party — made up of 11 former Labour and Tory MPs who oppose Brexit — has so far made relatively little impression in the opinion polls.
