Football

Premier League top four run-in: Who has the best and worst fixtures? Chelsea, Manchester United, Tottenham, Wolves?



As we enter the home straight of the Premier League season, with 10 games remaining for most top-flight clubs, the race to qualify for the Champions League is arguably the widest in recent memory.

Manchester City’s two-year ban from European competitions means that, as it stands, fifth place will be enough for a seat at the top table of European football.

But competition is fierce. Current fifth-place incumbents Manchester United lead a pack of seven teams separated by five points. Chelsea are only three points ahead in fourth.


City have launched an appeal against Uefa’s ban but a decision only likely to come from the Court of Arbitration for Sport in the summer. If City’s appeal is successful, fifth-place will only be enough for the Europa League.

But until that decision arrives, every team in contention for European football must factor City’s ban into their thinking over the next weeks and months. A back door route to the biggest stage of all is open, for now.

And by calculating the average home and away points-per-game of every Premier League side, we can weigh up the difficulty of each contender’s run-in.

Leicester City

Remaining fixtures

09/03 Aston Villa (H)


14/03 Watford (A)


22/03 Brighton (H)


06/04 Everton (A)


11/04 Crystal Palace (H)


18/04 Arsenal (A)


25/04 Bournemouth (A)


02/05 Sheffield United (H)


09/05 Tottenham (A)


17/05 Manchester United (H)

Current position: 3rd

Points: 50

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.42

Despite losing six of their last 11 league games, Leicester remain well-placed. Their cushion over fifth – and sixth – has slowly whittled away but still stands at eight points. There is no reason to be nervous, provided Brendan Rodgers can pick up a few wins down the stretch.

Victories over relegation-threatened Aston Villa, Watford and Brighton in their next three would go a long way to assuring Leicester of a spot in next season’s group stages. The trips to Goodison, the Emirates and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium which follow could be tricky.

And if Rodgers has still not arrested their slide by the time of the final weekend, their fate could be decided against Manchester United at the King Power. It is not the only last day shoot-out that could be on the cards.

Chelsea

Remaining fixtures

08/03 Everton (H)


14/03 Aston Villa (A)


21/03 Manchester City (H)


05/04 West Ham (A)


12/04 Watford (H)


18/04 Crystal Palace (A)


26/04 Sheffield United (A)


02/05 Norwich (H)


09/05 Liverpool (A)


17/05 Wolves (H)

Current position: 4th

Points: 45

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.53

Back at the start of December, Chelsea were six points clear of fifth-place. Frank Lampard’s side have won just five of their 14 league games since, and yet that lead over fifth has only been halved to three points.

That says everything about the standard of this European race and Chelsea’s own inconsistency. There is anxiety at Stamford Bridge that a Champions League place could slip out of their grasp, even if City’s ban is upheld.

Lampard’s run-in is mixed. Late-season meetings with City and Liverpool are not ideal, nor is a trip to Bramall Lane, but he will hope to take enough points against relegation battlers to avoid needing to beat at home to Wolves on the final day

Manchester United

Remaining fixtures

08/03 Manchester City (H)


15/03 Tottenham (A)


21/03 Sheffield United (H)


04/04 Brighton (A)


11/04 Bournemouth (H)


19/04 Aston Villa (A)


25/04 Southampton (H)


02/05 Crystal Palace (A)


09/05 West Ham (H)


17/05 Leicester (A)

Current position: 5th

Points: 42

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.58

United’s run-in is arguably the hardest of all the main contenders but they will at least get back-to-back games against City and Tottenham out of the way quickly. They also have a habit of performing well against more ambitious opponents who offer space in behind.

Unfortunately, that makes a six-game run against bottom-half opponents somewhat unpredictable. Five of those six teams have already taken points off United this season. Sheffield United will fancy their chances of an upset at Old Trafford too.

How Solskjaer’s side performs during that run will dictate whether they travel to the King Power on the final day of the season confident of a Champions League place or needing a major, potentially season-defining result.

Wolves

Remaining fixtures

07/03 Brighton (H)


15/03 West Ham (A)


21/03 Bournemouth (H)


04/04 Aston Villa (A)


13/04 Arsenal (H)


19/04 Sheffield United (A)


25/04 Everton (H)


02/05 Burnley (A)


09/05 Crystal Palace (H)


17/05 Chelsea (A)

Current position: 6th

Points: 42

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.28

Wolves are undoubtedly the ones to watch. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have emerged from a tricky six-game run in good form, with three victories and only one defeat, and now embark on arguably the most straight-forward run-in of all.

Their Champions League credentials will look a lot stronger if they can overcome four of the bottom six in their next four games. Wolves have a reputation of doing well against top opposition but have beaten West Ham, Bournemouth and Aston Villa already this year.

The run-in then begins to stiffen up slightly, but a visit from Arsenal is not as intimidating as it once was and they will even be confident of claiming a result at Chelsea. A relatively small squad and Europa League commitments could hamper them but they have every chance of making a late surge.

Tottenham

Remaining fixtures

07/03 Burnley (A)


15/03 Manchester United (H)


20/03 West Ham (H)


04/04 Sheffield United (A)


11/04 Everton (H)


18/04 Bournemouth (A)


26/04 Arsenal (H)


02/05 Newcastle (A)


09/05 Leicester (H)


17/05 Crystal Palace (A)

Current position: 7th

Points: 40

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.41 

Jose Mourinho appears happy to write this season off, given that he will be without Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son for the remainder of the campaign, but Tottenham still have plenty of opportunities to take points from teams around them.

Four of Spurs’ five home games are against sides currently competing for European places and they are significantly better at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium than on the road. Only Everton have a greater discrepancy between home and away results.

But Mourinho has lost to United, Wolves and twice to Chelsea since taking charge, all while being inconsistent at best against those further down the table. Tottenham’s key injuries and dwindling motivation count heavily against them.​

Sheffield United

Remaining fixtures

07/03 Norwich (H)


14/03 Newcastle (A)


21/03 Manchester United (A)


04/04 Tottenham (H)


11/04 Burnley (A)


19/04 Wolves (H)


26/04 Chelsea (H)


02/05 Leicester (A)


09/05 Everton (H)


17/05 Southampton (A)


  TBC Aston Villa (H)

Current position: 8th

Points: 40

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.39

The underdog story of the season has been built on a mean defence, with their total of 25 goals conceded only bettered by Liverpool. Unfortunately, there is probably not enough going on at the other end of the pitch for a fairytale rise to the Champions League.

Sheffield United have scored just 29 goals in 27 games and once back-to-back meetings with Norwich and Newcastle are out of the way, they are likely to play six fellow European contenders in succession. 

Four of those six games are at Bramall Lane, where Tottenham and Everton’s poor away records could be exploited, and Wilder’s side have made a habit of exceeding expectations this year. Even so, finishing fifth or higher would be a surprise.

Burnley

Remaining fixtures

07/03 Tottenham (H)


14/03 Manchester City (A)


21/03 Watford (H)


04/04 Crystal Palace (A)


11/04 Sheffield United (H)


18/04 West Ham (A)


25/04 Liverpool (A)


02/05 Wolves (H)


09/05 Norwich (A)


17/05 Brighton (H)

Current position: 9th

Points: 38

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.57

If we are going to consider outside bets for sneaking into fifth-place, we have to start with Burnley. A six-game unbeaten run has banished any lingering worries of relegation and lifted Sean Dyche’s side into the top half of the table. 

Can they rise even higher? Their wings could be quickly clipped by back-to-back games against Tottenham and City. There is a trip to Anfield to negotiate in late April too, then Wolves visit Turf Moor the following weekend.

Burnley have picked up results against the likes of Leicester, United and Arsenal of late, meaning it would be foolish to rule them out entirely, but it would require a spectacular run of form.​

Arsenal

Remaining fixtures

07/03 West Ham (H)


14/03 Brighton (A)


22/03 Southampton (A)


04/04 Norwich (H)


13/04 Wolves (A)


18/04 Leicester (H)


26/04 Tottenham (A)


02/05 Liverpool (H)


09/05 Aston Villa (A)


17/05 Watford (H)


  TBC Manchester City (A)

Current position: 10th

Points: 37

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.55

Like Sheffield United, Arsenal have a game in hand over the majority of their immediate rivals but are three points behind Chris Wilder’s side. Their hopes of sneaking into the Champions League through the back door are minimal.

That game in hand, a return to Manchester City for Mikel Arteta, is hardly a favourable fixture. A trip to Molineux and an away north London derby are not ideal either, while Liverpool and Leicester must still visit the Emirates. 

That might not be so bad but Arsenal have only won two games against teams currently in the top half. Arteta no longer has to split his squad across two fronts following elimination from the Europa League, at least, but a quick return to continental competition looks unlikely.​

Everton

Remaining fixtures

08/03 Chelsea (A)


16/03 Liverpool (H)


21/03 Norwich (A)


06/04 Leicester (H)


11/04 Tottenham (A)


18/04 Southampton (H)


25/04 Wolves (A)


02/05 Aston Villa (H)


09/05 Sheffield United (A)


17/03 Bournemouth (H)

Current position: 11th

Points: 37

Average home/away points of opponents: 1.60

Despite much-improved performances under Carlo Ancelotti, Everton are five points back of fifth-place. European football – let alone a Champions League place – has not been an objective since very early on in the campaign and could still prove a bridge too far.

Ancelotti benefitted from a favourable schedule after taking over and will have to contend with trips to Stamford Bridge, the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and Molineux over these final weeks and months, not to mention a Merseyside derby at Goodison.

Everton have come close to beating ‘top six’ opposition in Arsenal and United recently though, and could finish strongly against stragglers Villa and Bournemouth, but nevertheless face one of the top flight’s toughest run-ins.​

Verdict

Wolves have a favourable set of fixtures (Getty Images)

Leicester can be very confident of at least finishing fourth, so long as they do not continue to tailspin. The other two potential Champions League places remain too close to call, though Wolves must be taken seriously. 

Nuno’s side have both the form and fixtures to put up a late-season run and may be the most impressive all-round team among the remaining contenders, though their charge could be affected by European commitments.

United could have the same problem, but their hopes of finishing fifth or higher will rest on whether they have learned how to beat bottom-half opponents away from home. Trips to Brighton, Palace and Villa will be key.

Chelsea have more points on the board than most but inconsistency means their fate is unlikely to be settled any time soon. Leicester against United and Chelsea hosting Wolves on the final day could be the showdown this wide open race deserves.



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