One nation Conservative MPs are privately feeling “a real sense of doom” about Boris Johnson’s tactics, with speculation growing over whether he could be removed and replaced by someone else if he fails to get a deal.
While Eurosceptics are rallying round their leader, Conservative MPs on the liberal centrist wing of the party expressed frustration about Johnson’s missteps and what they see as a betrayal of his promises to govern as a one nation prime minister. In an attempt to win their support, he had told them he did not favour “arcane procedures” like prorogation.
They are particularly furious about Johnson’s communications strategy, in which a moderate official line that the prime minister will abide by the law is undermined by “government source” quotes suggesting he will seek to circumvent it and refuse to ask for a Brexit delay.
ITV cited one of the government sources saying Johnson would obey the law but: “That is NOT the same as ‘the PM will ask for a delay’! HOW we comply with the Benn Act is the real question, and also what would be in our SECOND letter.”
Johnson will attempt to revive morale among his MPs after the humiliation of this week’s supreme court ruling by appearing before the backbench 1922 Committee on Thursday morning.
He is still insisting that he wants to get a deal. But even some advisers in No 10 are worried that the hardline guerrilla threats of no deal associated with Johnson’s senior adviser Dominic Cummings are backfiring.
MPs are reluctant to criticise Johnson publicly with an election on the horizon but several indicated there would be willingness to act against their own leader in order to stop a no-deal Brexit.
A leading one nation Tory MP said: “A real sense of doom among Tory MPs is starting to emerge now. Even the ones who gave him the benefit of the doubt. With prorogation, it was a big gamble and it hasn’t paid off. And I think in his position you have to take responsibility for that.
“There is a feeling that he should be given a bit more time but people’s patience is starting to run out. There is a small but growing sense that he may have to step down. He has got a bit of grace as it’s still the end of September but if we get to the first two weeks of October and there’s no progress then people will start to become more jittery and think about their options.”
Another one nation Tory said MPs were pinning their hopes on a deal but they could try to replace Johnson with another candidate rather than face the possibility of a vote of confidence that could lead to Jeremy Corbyn entering Downing Street.
It is unclear whether Johnson could be subject to a confidence vote held by the 1922 Committee within his first 12 months of office or whether half the party could be sufficiently disillusioned with him to vote for ousting him. The most critical 21 MPs have already been thrown out of the party for refusing to endorse Johnson’s threats of a no-deal Brexit.
However, some MPs think a party confidence vote is still possible if 15% of the parliamentary party request one and there are other theories circulating about whether he could be persuaded to step aside and cast himself as a “Brexit martyr” who refused to request an extension from the EU.
On Wednesday afternoon, Johnson took an aggressive stance towards the opposition in the House of Commons, prompting large numbers of his Eurosceptic backbench supporters to break into noisy applause. Other Tory MPs stayed stony-faced without clapping.
Antoinette Sandbach, one of the 21 rebel MPs who had the whip withdrawn, pointedly reminded the prime minister how he had once said he would try to build consensus for a deal across the Commons, which the EU would want to see before giving him any concessions. “Can he update the house on the moves he is making to build consensus?” she asked.
MPs in the One Nation group, which is led by Damian Green, the former de facto deputy prime minister, said they were so worried about No 10’s lack of efforts to build such a cross-party consensus that they were opening up their own channels with Labour MPs representing leave areas to see where the potential lies for a majority for a possible deal.
Senior members of the cross-party MPs for a Deal group were meeting on Wednesday to consider how best to put pressure on Johnson to secure an agreement with the EU27, and table it in parliament.
Labour MPs involved said they have had conversations with a “sensible” Conservative MP, who they believe is acting as a conduit to Downing Street.
Johnson’s team had previously appeared lukewarm about the prospects of getting a deal; but after the Benn bill made a no-deal Brexit much more difficult to achieve, MPs sense that the prime minister is increasingly boxed in with no other options.
As consternation grows among soft Brexit Conservatives, Michael Heseltine, the former Conservative deputy prime minister, told Channel 4 News that he thought Johnson should resign. “It’s almost inconceivable for me to watch a Conservative government behave in this way,” he said.
Heseltine said he was dismayed to see how his party have reacted to the supreme court ruling and that “in any normal circumstances, the prime minister would have to go”.
