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No time to prepare for an October no deal


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Boris Johnson is keeping open the possibility that Britain will leave the EU on October 31 in a no-deal Brexit.

But while Mr Johnson says the UK “is more than capable of rising to the challenge”, he ignores one point: there is too little time between now and October 31 to put adequate no-deal preparations in place.

Many politicians assume that because the UK planned for a possible no deal on March 29, all those plans are still in place. But this isn’t the case.

Whitehall’s emergency civil contingency units for no deal were stood down after March 29. Contracts with ferry companies to ship emergency supplies have been cancelled. UK companies, having seen the government “cry wolf” once over a March 29 no deal, are reluctant to spend even more money on no-deal contingencies.

Meanwhile, a new prime minister will arrive in Downing Street in the last week of July. This leaves just three months to reactivate no-deal contingency plans — weeks that will already be consumed by the formation of a new government, the summer recess and the party conference season.

There are three areas in particular where the planning window for an October 31 deadline seems too short.

First, there is the impact on business. A confidential Cabinet document written last month and leaked to the Financial Times said the pharmaceutical industry needed a lead time of at least “six to eight months” to stockpile ahead of the next no-deal cliff-edge.

According to the document, the government needed to spend at least four to five months getting traders ready for new border checks.

Another document seen by BBC Newsnight said that, as of May 26, fewer than 10 per cent of companies had implemented the customs arrangements needed for no deal. One industry expert said this was a “terrible” number.

Second, there are questions over whether the civil service could cope with another no-deal deadline so soon.

According to Joe Owen of the Institute for Government, thousands of officials drafted in as emergency support for a March 29 no deal have returned to their old departments or moved on to new jobs. The operational centres — for “Yellowhammer” contingency plans — have been stood down. 

“All this will need to be resurrected and restaffed, and earlier rounds of staff training will need to be repeated,” he said. “This is going to put a considerable strain on individuals.”

Third, no deal on October 31 would need to be preceded by legislation in the Commons.

According to the House of Commons Library, there are eight bills that the government would have to pass to facilitate a no-deal Brexit. These include bills on trade, agriculture, fisheries, immigration, social security and financial services.

The HoC Library said a “no-deal” scenario required this legislation to be passed “to ensure the UK has measures in place to replace EU legislation, which will no longer apply”. It is hard to see how this could be done in time.

If chosen as prime minister, Mr Johnson could ignore all these realities and go on threatening no deal right up to October 31. He would do so believing two things would happen. Either a) the EU would back down and offer him a better Brexit deal than Theresa May’s; or b) the EU would concede lots of mini-deals at the last minute that would make a disorderly no-deal Brexit more manageable.

But for the threat to work, the EU has to believe that Britain isn’t bluffing and that it is better prepared for no deal on October 31 than it was on March 29. All the signs are that it won’t be.

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Further reading

Boris Johnson faces challenge of overcoming Tory favourites’ curse

“As the contest to decide the next occupant of 10 Downing Street heats up, Boris Johnson will be all too aware of one of the golden rules of Tory leadership battles: the politician who starts out as favourite almost never ends up taking the crown . . . in the 54 years in which the Conservatives have used a formal voting procedure to choose their leader, almost every frontrunner has come to grief.” (James Blitz, FT)

Johnson is every bit as dull and evasive as his minders hoped

“‘Piffle, poffle, wiffle, waffle,’ Johnson mumbled, tugging on a sweaty strand of hair. His minders purred. This was every bit as boring and low key as they had hoped. Most of the audience were dozing off long before their man had finished his first sentence, and even Boris was having trouble keeping his eyes open. Backstage, someone turned the heating up another couple of notches. Just to maintain the torpor.” (John Crace, The Guardian)

5 ways Boris’ bid for power is sowing more Brexit divisions

“A no-deal Brexit would lead to appalling dislocation. The Bank of England predicts the economy shrinking by 8%, house prices crashing and unemployment and inflation spiralling. Police chiefs have amassed the biggest ever peacetime reserve of officers in expectation of social unrest.” (Luke Lythgoe, InFacts Stop Brexit)

Hard numbers

Brexit is turning Britons off the news, survey finds. Read more



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