Politics

No-deal Brexit would be a betrayal, says Philip Hammond


The expected demise of Theresa May’s Brexit plan has sparked open feuding over what comes next, with the chancellor, Philip Hammond, arguing that proponents of a no-deal Brexit are betraying the referendum result.

The cabinet will discuss on Tuesday the final details of what Downing Street calls a “new and improved deal” to be presented to the House of Commons, expected to include reassurances on areas including the Irish backstop, workers’ rights and environmental protections.

In an indication of the turmoil gripping the party, it emerged on Monday night that the former deputy prime minister Michael Heseltine has had the whip suspended after saying he would vote Liberal Democrat in Thursday’s European election.

With Conservative MPs near unanimous in saying May will lose the vote on her deal in the week starting 3 June, and Labour not minded to come to her rescue, attention is shifting to what happens when she leaves No 10, as she has promised to do soon afterwards.

Boris Johnson is the current clear favourite to succeed May but he will face intense opposition, especially if he opts to pursue a no-deal departure should negotiations with the EU on a revised Brexit plan founder.

Michael Gove

The fortunes of the environment secretary remain hard to predict and opinion is split in the party. His detractors believe he is deeply unpopular with the country and has ruined his reputation for good when he stood against Johnson at the last leadership race. However, most MPs were delighted by his performance in the no-confidence vote where he tore into Corbyn.

Matt Hancock

While the response of many voters to mention of the health secretary is still likely to be ‘Who?’, to some he is starting to have the makings of a from-the-sidelines contender. The former culture secretary is only 40 but has six years of frontbench experience, and is on to his second cabinet post.

Jeremy Hunt

The nickname ‘Theresa in trousers’ has stuck. Most colleagues speak about his candidacy unenthusiastically and warn about his reputation with the country after having weathered the junior doctors’ strike. He could still succeed by bridging the Brexit-remain divide and attracting colleagues looking for a moderate grown-up.

Sajid Javid

The home secretary is reported to have told Tory MPs he is the only one who can beat Jeremy Corbyn in a general election, but has made less of an impact than first predicted. Several MPs believe that the case of Isis bride Shamima Begum was mishandled and find Javid’s speeches and vision less than inspiring.

Boris Johnson

Still favourite for the top job, Johnson has kept himself out of the messiest Tory warfare in 2019 and has enthusiastic support from younger Brexiter MPs – and the patronage of Jacob Rees-Mogg. His supporters insist no other name on the list can connect with voters in the same way and win a general election. However, his reputation is still severely damaged from his time as foreign secretary and there is a concerted ‘anyone but Boris’ campaign among party colleagues.

Andrea Leadsom

Leadsom has revived her reputation somewhat during her tenure as Commons leader, especially her rounds in the ring with the Speaker, John Bercow. However, few believe she would ever be first choice again among Eurosceptics and a number of her former campaign team have said they will discourage her from running.

Esther McVey

Former cabinet minister McVey has already announced her intention to run. She has the Brexit credentials, having quit as Work and Pensions Secretary in protest at Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement, and claims to already have enough support from fellow MPs to make her bid viable.

Penny Mordaunt

The international development secretary is a confirmed Brexiter, which will appeal to much of the leadership electorate, but is also decidedly liberal on social issues, so could be seen as a unifier. But for some the idea of Mordaunt is more credible than the reality. There is still, however, time for her to turn this impression around.

Dominic Raab

The former Brexit secretary has a loyal fanbase and a professional team, including support from Vote Leave’s ex-comms director Paul Stephenson. MPs are forming the view that the next party leader should be a younger face from a new generation of politicians – which gives Raab the edge over Boris Johnson

Amber Rudd

The work and pensions secretary, the favourite among the party’s left, has all but ruled herself out of the race. She could still be a powerful kingmaker, and is being wooed as a running mate by everyone from Johnson and Michael Gove to Hunt.

Liz Truss

Truss has worked the circuit more than almost any other potential candidate, speaking on the future of the Tory party at almost any venue that will have her – thinktanks, launches and in weekend newspaper spreads. She hopes to win Brexiter backing with a publicly enthusiastic embrace of a no-deal Brexit – much to the scepticism of Treasury colleagues. 

And those not in the running

Among the senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, the party chairman, Chris Grayling, the transport secretary, and Philip Hammond, the chancellor, who acknowledges that he is not popular enough. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around.

Hammond is due to castigate proponents of leaving the EU with no deal in his most scathing terms yet when he speaks on Tuesday evening to the annual dinner of the CBI, which also vehemently opposes no deal.

A no-deal Brexit was being touted by people “on the populist right”, Hammond is due to say, an apparent reference to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party which could also be read as criticism of Tory advocates of the idea.

He will add: “Let me remind them: the 2016 leave campaign was clear that we would leave with a deal. So to advocate for no deal is to hijack the result of the referendum and, in doing so, knowingly to inflict damage on our economy and our living standards.

“All the preparation in the world [could not avoid the consequences of no deal] so I will continue to fight, in the face of this polarisation, for a negotiated Brexit; an outcome that respects the British people’s decision to leave, while recognising that there is no mandate for a no-deal exit; and that we have an absolute obligation to protect Britain’s jobs, businesses and future prosperity.”

The comments come as any remaining political momentum seemed to ebb away from May’s Brexit plan, to be presented to MPs this time as the withdrawal agreement bill.

It had been touted by the prime minister as a “new, bold offer” and presented as a different entity to the Brexit plan now rejected by MPs three times.

May’s spokesman said there were as yet no details on what offerings would be in the bill, saying it had yet to be completed. “We have been working on that piece of legislation for a long time, so the vast bulk of the work is completed, but there is still work ongoing,” he said.

However, he said it was likely to include ideas on workers’ rights and environmental measures explored in talks with Labour, and a commitment to alternative arrangements to try to ensure the Irish backstop was not needed.

Sent out on Monday morning to sell the plan via a series of media interviews, the health secretary, Matt Hancock, argued that MPs should back the bill in the initial vote and then seek to amend it.

“You need to vote for this legislation and then have the debate at the committee stages later on exactly what the details are,” he said. “And no doubt there will be votes on the really big issues like whether to have a people’s vote and whether to have customs union.”

However, this argument appeared to backfire, with the former Brexit secretary David Davis saying it meant he might now not vote for the deal, having backed it in the last two votes.

“This is not a great new offer; it’s a great new concession,” Davis said. “What it will do – and this is the critical thing – is if we pass that act, it opens things up so that the successor to the prime minister, the next prime minister, will have their hands tied.”

In private, Conservative MPs said the bill had almost no chance of passing. “It’s doomed unless all Tory leadership contenders decide to support it so they don’t have to deal with it,” said one influential centrist backbencher.

Another MP used similar language: “It’s doomed and none of the concessions will persuade enough MPs to vote for it.”

A third MP said that, like Davis, they might not back the plan, having voted for it last time: “I’ll have to wait and see what it says, but there’s a good chance I won’t this time,” they said, adding that they could not risk the idea of a second referendum being added to the bill. They said: “The Brexit party are just killing us in my constituency. If there was an election tomorrow I’d be gone.”



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