Money

No-deal Brexit could see ‘substantial number’ of businesses become unprofitable and trigger food shortages, Mark Carney warns



A no-deal Brexit could cause food shortages, Mark Carney has suggested, adding that job losses and business closures are also likely. 

Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Friday, the governor of the Bank of England said an abrupt Brexit would create a “logistics” headache. He noted that the government had been hiring extra customs officers and increasing capacity at ports to deal with a possible sudden switch away from tariff-free trade with the EU. 

Mr Carney refused to be drawn on whether the government will manage to complete the preparations by the 31 October Brexit deadline, but hinted at consequences of failing to do so. 

“The challenge is, particularly in food, it’s perishable, so you can’t stockpile today for demand in November and it’s heavily, heavily dependent on those ports being open,” he said. 

A no-deal Brexit would also deliver an immediate blow to a “potentially substantial number” of companies, Mr Carney said.  

“The economics of no deal are that the rules of the game of exporting to Europe or importing from Europe fundamentally change and there are some very big industries in this country where that which is highly profitable becomes not profitable, becomes uneconomic and very difficult decisions will need to be taken.

“That has knock-on effects on the economy in the short term.”

Mr Carney added that the automotive, food, chemicals and transport sectors would be most affected. 

But even those businesses that survived would not emerge unscathed, he suggested, citing a survey of 10,000 firms by the central bank.

“They think that output will go down, they’ll have to let people go… That is the view of those firms,” Mr Carney said, reiterating a warning he issued last month. 

And no one will be able to escape the higher inflation that will result from a weaker pound if Britain leaves the EU without an agreement. 

“In the event of no deal, the exchange rate would go down for a period of time, and the area of the economy where that instantly translates into prices is in the forecourt of the petrol station and in food and veg,” Mr Carney said.

His comments follow the release of gloomier economic forecasts by the Bank of England on Thursday. They showed that, even if there is an orderly Brexit, the economy will grow at the weakest rate in a decade in 2019 and 2020 and there is now a one-in-three chance of recession. A no-deal Brexit would mean even slower growth, the bank said.



READ SOURCE

Leave a Reply

This website uses cookies. By continuing to use this site, you accept our use of cookies.