Science

Nearly half of ALL jobs could be lost or radically transformed due to automation in next two decades


Nearly half of ALL jobs could be lost or radically transformed as a result of automation within the next two decades, report warns

  • A report from the OECD says automation will affect for half of all jobs 
  • In 20 years, 14 percent will be fully automated, and 32 percent will be affected
  • To help transition it’s time that governments develop a plan for workers
  • Training and even funding could be a part of the solution says the OECD 

Within many workers’ lifetimes, jobs will be radically altered by automation.

And, according to one of the world’s biggest international coalitions, it’s time to develop a plan B. 

A recent employment outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a coalition consisting of 36 countries across the world, said that within the next two decades half of all jobs will be substantially transformed by technology.

In some cases, that will mean workers losing their jobs outright — the OECD estimates 14 percent of jobs will be completely automated in the next two decades — while others, 32 percent of jobs, will be vastly different from what they look like now.

The OECD says its time to develop a plan for when automation overtakes many industries as we currently know them. Researchers outlined highlights from their findings in a graphic, shown above

The OECD says its time to develop a plan for when automation overtakes many industries as we currently know them. Researchers outlined highlights from their findings in a graphic, shown above

Whether jobs are transformed or lost completely to the advance of technology, the OECD says one question rises above all others: ‘are we ready?’

‘The OECD Employment Outlook does not envisage a jobless future. But it does foresee major challenges for the future of work,’ said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría, in a statement.  

While many jobs will be changed or eliminated, the OECD says that the shift won’t necessarily equate to less overall jobs for workers. With new and improved technology, also comes new and skilled jobs.  

Automation may even create jobs in the short term, say some analysts.

The problem, says the organization, is ensuring that current workers are equipped to transition into those jobs now and in the future. 

Currently, six out of 10 adults have no information and communications technology (ICT) experience while the share of highly-skilled jobs has increased by 25 percent throughout the past 20 years.

This rift in training has been widened by the loss in industries like manufacturing which, in the U.S. has hemorrhaged 7.5 million workers between 1980 and 2018.

Robots have started to enter fields across the employment spectrum including serving coffee, making juice, delivering products and more.

Robots have started to enter fields across the employment spectrum including serving coffee, making juice, delivering products and more.

To ensure that workers eclipsed by robots and other technology can pivot into a new career, the OECD says that a robust adult training program is critical. 

That may involve not only training older workers but also removing the financial burdens of their endeavors through subsidies.

In some cases, to ease the economic impact of mass automation, forward-thinking policy makers and recently, one U.S. presidential hopeful, has proposed what is known as a Universal Basic Income — government provided income given to all citizens regardless of circumstance. 

Manufacturing has been particularly hard hit by automation with millions in the U.S. losing their jobs over the past 40 years.

Manufacturing has been particularly hard hit by automation with millions in the U.S. losing their jobs over the past 40 years.

This money, say proponents, would allow workers to undergo additional training for new jobs and ease unrest in the case of substantial job loss. 

Opponents say the stipend would just disincentivize work all together. 

The OECD is clear that nothing is set in stone. 

Even with a rapidly changing economy and the forward march of technology, all we need is a plan.

‘With the right policies, we can manage these challenges. We face significant transformation, but we have the opportunity and the determination to use this moment and build a future of work that benefits everyone,’ said Gurria.

HOW WILL ROBOTS CHANGE THE WORKPLACE BY 2022?

The World Economic Forum has unveiled its latest predictions for the future of jobs.

Its 2018 report surveyed executives representing 15 million employees in 20 economies.

The non-profit expects robots, AI and other forms of automation to drastically change the workplace within the next four years.

By 2022:

Jobs predicted to be displaced: 75 million

Jobs predicted to be created: 133 million 

Share of workforce requiring re-/upskilling: 54 per cent

Companies expecting to cut permanent workforce: 50 per cent

Companies expecting to hire specialist contractors: 48 per cent

Companies expecting to grow workforce: 38 per cent

Companies expecting automation to grow workforce: 28 per cent



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