Talks to revive Northern Ireland’s government will resume on Tuesday following an outcry over the killing of a journalist but hopes for an early deal are low despite a boost for centrist politics in local elections.
Lyra McKee’s killing in Londonderry last month led London and Dublin to hold new negotiations with all the region’s parties, more than two years after the power-sharing executive of the pro-British Democratic Unionists and the Irish republican Sinn Féin collapsed over a public spending scandal.
In last week’s local elections the cross-community Alliance party, which describes itself as neither unionist nor nationalist, saw its support almost double to 11.5 per cent. Naomi Long, its leader, said people “want to see politics that delivers” and were “not interested in the kind of tribal politics of the past in terms of unionism and nationalism”.
But neither the DUP nor Sinn Féin suffered a significant voter backlash. Analysts said neither party would therefore want to soften their positions ahead of the possible European Parliament elections later this month.
Alex Kane, a former communications director for the Ulster Unionist party, said: “As it stands, I don’t expect [the local election] to have any impact on the talks process. The chasm between DUP and Sinn Féin is as wide as ever.”
The schism over local policies has been exacerbated by their opposing positions on Brexit, with the DUP pushing for Northern Ireland to leave the EU on the same terms as the rest of the UK while Sinn Féin wants special status for the region within the bloc. Another barrier to a deal is the DUP’s confidence-and-supply deal with UK Conservatives in Westminster, that keeps Theresa May’s government in power and gives the party outsize influence in the Brexit debate.
Referring to the deferred Brexit date, Mr Kane said: “Until there’s some clarity on Brexit, whether there is going to be one, or a second referendum or a soft Brexit — the parties can’t move. There’s no point doing a deal now to have it wrecked by October 31st.”
Brian Feeney, a historian of Sinn Féin, said there was nothing to suggest McKee’s killing by dissident republican paramilitaries had fundamentally changed the dynamic. “There’s no evidence of a breakthrough. All the evidence is stacked against it.” He also noted indications from Arlene Foster and Mary Lou McDonald, leaders of DUP and Sinn Féin respectively, that they would take a tough line in the talks.
Conor Houston, a Belfast businessman who was friends with McKee and a civic activist for peace, said there was a “huge moral case” for the DUP and Sinn Fein to set aside their differences. “The lack of government is affecting people’s lives. Critical decisions are not being made. It’s like we’re stuck. Society is stuck. Politics is stuck. There’s a hunger for something to emerge which creates some kind of vision,” he said.
“The business community have stepped up over the last couple of years and have continued to drive a lot of initiatives and projects. But that can’t be a permanent substitute for good government.”
The parties are divided over same-sex marriage, which the DUP opposes, and Sinn Féin’s demand for a law to protect the Irish language. “I get no sense within broader unionism or the DUP of any desire to yield on an Irish language act,” said Mr Kane.
The talks are scheduled to continue for “weeks not months”, according to one person involved the preparations.
Leo Varadkar, prime minister of Ireland, has urged compromise, saying both parties should be “generous”.
But there is little optimism. “Both governments will give it a good bit [of a push] but we’re completely underwhelmed by the efforts of Arlene and Mary Lou,” said one Irish figure who knows the mood in Mr Varadkar’s government.
The timetable is tight. If there is no breakthrough before the European elections, there is only a short window before the pro-British loyalist marching season in July, a time of the year in which it is difficult for Ms Foster to propose compromise to hardliners in her party.
Another complicating factor is that a report is awaited from a public inquiry into the botched renewable heating scheme that led to the collapse of the DUP-Sinn Fein administration in January 2017. Ms Foster has apologised for her party’s role in the affair but she still faces the risk of damaging findings from the inquiry.
Still, Mr Houston said the parties could strike a deal if they had the will. “There’s never a good time for talks in Northern Ireland. We have managed to find two-and-a-half years of excuses,” he said. “The challenges they face are not as difficult as those we have overcome in the past.”
