HUNDREDS of people have been infected by a mystery virus sweeping China and Japan, scientists warned today.
The SARS-like virus that causes lung lesions has already killed two people and is spreading across Asia.
Although there have been 45 confirmed cases, scientists fear up to 1,700 have been infected.
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Of the confirmed cases, two people are known to have died due to pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus, which appeared in Wuhan city in December.
Five others have been reported to be in critical condition and 22 are in a stable condition, said the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission.
But a report published by the London Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis claimed there are likely “substantially more cases” of the new coronavirus than have been formally reported.
A summary of the report estimates that there would be 1,723 cases showing onset of related symptoms by January 12.
UK disease outbreak scientist working with the team at Imperial College, Professor Neil Ferguson told the BBC: “I am substantially more concerned than I was a week ago.”
Earlier this month, Chinese researchers said a mysterious illness that had spread in Wuhan was caused by a new type of coronavirus, which at their weakest can cause mild cold-like symptoms, but at their most dangerous can lead to SARS.
THE MYSTERY VIRUS
Coronavirus is an airborne virus, spread in a similar way to colds and the flu.
The virus attacks the respiratory system, causing lung lesions.
Symptoms include a runny nose, headache, cough and fever, shortness of breath, chills and body aches.
It is incredibly contagious and is spread through contact with anything the virus is on as well as infected breath, coughs or sneezes.
In 2003 an outbreak of a similar virus, SARS, infected more than 8,000 people in 37 countries before it was brought under control, killing 800 of those worldwide.
The virus may have already spread to Hong Kong, South Korea and Taiwan.
Prof. Ferguson explained that that while it was “too early to be an alarmist,” people should be “considering the possibility of substantial human-to-human transmission more seriously than they have so far,” saying it was “unlikely” that animal exposure was the main source of infection.
The original outbreak of the virus is believed to trace back to a seafood market in Wuhan.
However authorities say some patients they have identified deny having any exposure to this market, which has been completely shut down since January 1.
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With a population of 19 million people, Wuhan is one of China’s biggest cities and is also home to a major airport, through which an estimated 3,400 travel internationally every day.
Thailand reported two cases of the coronavirus from Chinese travellers from Wuhan this week, while Japan confirmed one case involving a Japanese national who travelled to Wuhan.
Prof. Ferguson told the BBC: “That caused me to worry.”
“For Wuhan to have exported three cases to other countries would imply there would have to be many more cases than have been reported.”
The emergence of the virus is raising concerns as hundreds of millions of people get ready to travel during the Chinese New Year holiday later this month.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has advised against a travel ban, saying there was no indication the disease is easily transmittable among people.
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However this hasn’t deterred authorities in Hong Kong stepping up detection measures, which include rigorous temperature checkpoints for inbound travellers from the Chinese mainland.
The US also said from Friday it would begin screening flights arriving from Wuhan at San Francisco airport and New York’s JFK – which both receive direct flights – as well as Los Angeles, where many flights connect.
Memories remain fresh in Asia of a 2002/03 outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which emerged in China and infected more than 8,000 people in 37 countries before it was brought under control.
Nearly 800 people died worldwide, while China was accused of covering up the case.
So far, health officials do not consider the new virus from China to be as lethal as SARS, but the investigation is evolving and much is still not known about how easily the virus can spread from person to person.
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