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Britain’s coronavirus crisis is set to escalate with “many thousands of people” due to be hit by the infection, a top health chief warned today.
Deputy chief medical officer Dr Jenny Harries braced the nation for a sharp rise in the number of cases within a fortnight. In response, ministers are ready to unleash a new “Cold War” — telling people to stay at home for seven days if they have cold or flu symptoms similar to coronavirus — to try to minimise the looming epidemic’s peak and push it into the summer.
Government scientists say they are seeking to reduce the number of cases at the peak by up to 50 per cent and the death rate in vulnerable groups, such as the elderly and people with underlying health conditions, by 20 to 30 per cent.
But even if this is achieved it is expected that coronavirus will kill hundreds, if not thousands of people. Flu can kill 8,000 people a year.
Dr Harries stressed the UK was still in the “containment” phase of fighting the virus, with “relatively few cases”, 319, with five deaths, before the latest figures were announced today.
However, she told Sky News: “Large numbers of the population will become infected because it’s a naive population, nobody has got antibodies to this virus currently.
“We will see many thousands of people infected by coronavirus, that’s what we’re seeing in other countries and the important thing for us is to make sure that we manage those infections.”
As Britain gets a “very large number” of cases, the assumption will be that people with Covid-like symptoms have the infection rather than being tested for it. She issued the grim warning as:
- A patient at the Royal London Hospital was diagnosed with coronavirus. A second patient on the same ward at the hospital in Whitechapel was awaiting confirmation of test results after displaying symptoms.
- Diplomats in Rome told tens of thousands of Britons that they could still leave Italy which has been put in nationwide lockdown as Covid-19 spirals out of control, with the number of cases set to break the 10,000 mark today. However, British Airways this morning cancelled all its flights to and from Italy.
- The UK Government’s scientific advisory group for epidemics (SAGE) was meeting to discuss the next step in Britain’s response.
- The Government’s “steady and measured” approach, with less aggressive measures so far compared with other countries, came under criticism, including from Richard Horton, editor-in-chief of The Lancet, who said: “The UK Government’s decision not to move to ‘delay’ may be understandable, but it’s a mistake.”
- Dr Harries rejected criticism of the Government’s approach, stressing it was based on science and that triggering social distancing measures too early could weaken them as people may grow weary and stop following them at the crucial time.
- Outbreaks flared in France, where the death toll rose by five to 30, Spain and Germany, and fear grew in the United States, where more than 750 people are infected. Austria today announced it will deny entry to people arriving from Italy.
- The FTSE 100 staged a partial recovery, up 3.81 per cent mid-morning, after plunging nearly eight per cent yesterday over coronavirus fears and an oil bust-up between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
- Former chancellor Philip Hammond warned Britain’s economy could be hit by a “significant dip” and called for emergency help for businesses struggling with VAT and National Insurance payments in tomorrow’s Budget.
- TfL announced it was stepping up its cleaning regime across the Tube and bus network to reduce the risk of passengers spreading coronavirus.
- Virgin Atlantic admitted flying planes that are “almost empty” in order to keep take-off and landing slots despite demand plummeting.
The chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, told yesterday how within the next 10 to 14 days, people with cold or flu-like symptoms, would be asked to self-isolate as part of a crucial social distancing move.
His deputy Dr Harries said the start of the epidemic peak was expected within this period, with the number of cases rising sharply, though “we are not really at the rocket phase yet”.
She added: “If you have a new disease, the normal thing is, it will take off gradually. It will rise very rapidly at one point and come back down again when it effectively runs out of people in the population to infect.”
China is at the end of its current epidemic peak, she added, but questioned whether the outbreak may erupt again once lockdowns and other stringent measures are relaxed.
Mr Hammond said: “It’s about supporting businesses in the short term, but the Chancellor also has to think about the medium term. It is quite possible we will see a significant dip in economic output in the short term.”
