att Hancock has said it is “too early” to determine whether England’s lockdown should end as planned in just over two weeks’ time.
However, asked on Monday morning whether the lockdown will simply be “rebadged” after next month’s deadline, the Health Secretary told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “It is still too early to say I’m afraid.”
Mr Hancock continued: “We’ve seen in the last week that there is still a very high number of cases but we do absolutely want to come out of this national lockdown.
“That is our goal, everybody has a part to play in making that happen of course, following the social distancing rules and isolating when you need to, which is the critical thing.”
He said one of the main goals now was to use the mass rapid testing roll-out to find those who are asymptomatic with the virus.
Professor Susan Michie, a member of the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), urged the public to resist breaking existing rules, to “be in a position” to spend the festive period with loved ones.
She also suggested that the announcement of a potential Covid-19 vaccine could lead to complacency with the measures, adding that the jab will make “no difference” to the current wave.
When asked what should replace current measures when lockdown ends, Professor Michie told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Saturday: “It’s too early to know. I think the next two weeks is going to be absolutely crucial.
“They’re going to be a very challenging two weeks, partly because of the weather, partly because, I think, the promise of a vaccine may be making people feel complacent.
“But the vaccine is very unlikely to come in until the end of the year or beginning of next year and that’s going to make no difference to the current second wave.
“So I think for the next two weeks, everybody has to really get all their resolve together.”
Prof Michie, a behavioural scientist at University College London, advised the public to “really pay attention to resisting any urges to break the rules” on social distancing and visiting other households.
“Because that will maximise the chance that in two weeks’ time, on December 2, we’re in a position where actually we don’t have to continue the lockdown,” she added.
“And better still, what everybody wants, is to be in a position where they can spend the Christmas and winter holiday times with loved ones.”
When asked if this meant the gains during lockdown would be lost, Prof Michie said she was “quite hopeful” after tough measures in Wales and Northern Ireland brought transmission rates down.
Documents, written the day before the second national lockdown was imposed, show a consensus statement prepared by a modelling subgroup of Sage raised concerns about returning to the tier system.
Modelling found that if the lockdown is “well-adhered to”, it is likely to reduce the reproduction number to less than 1, with hospital admissions and deaths expected to fall until at least the second week of December.
But the document, dated November 4, added: “If England returns to the same application of the tiering system in place before November 5, then transmission will return to the same rate of increase as today.”
Other documents from late October state that any hopes of families gathering at Christmas will also be dependent on the R value staying below 1 for “some time”.
It is hoped that R will drop in more places next week or the week after, as people stick to the strict lockdown rules.
