Science

Long-term weather forecast: Farmers’ Almanac warns ‘Roller coaster winter lies ahead’


Average temperatures around the globe have hit record highs, making June 2019 the hottest June ever. But the Farmers’ Almanac has now warned in its extended US weather forecast to expect another turbulent winter season. The almanac’s editor Peter Geiger revealed to Express.co.uk “it is going to be a roller coaster winter”.

He added: “It is going to be up and down, in terms of what the weather is.

“We think the western parts of the United States from the Rocky Mountains will have a mild winter.

“But anything east of the Rocky’s will have a very cold and snowy winter.

The Farmers’ Almanac even cites several dates which will experience significantly bad weather.

Mr Geiger added: “In particular, we talk about some very severe storms between January 4 and 7 and January 8 and 12.

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“And we talk about it being especially cold in the last week of January and the first week of February.

“We also say the winter is going to be long, going well into April, as opposed to ending in early March.”

The Farmers’ Almanac famously predicted a bitterly cold winter for most of the United States last year.

The season witnessed North America’s East Coast shiver in a record-breaking freeze in the wake of a deadly “bomb cyclone” that dumped snow as far south as Florida.

However, this year’s winter is not anticipated to be so extreme.

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Mr Geiger said: “We think this winter there is going to be some up and down in terms of temperatures.

“So instead of it being a bitterly cold for the entirety of the winter, you are going to see some breaks.

“And that will mean some storms will be a snow and rain mixture, which is obviously never the weather you would like to have.

“But I think the worst part of the country for winter is going to be the northern Great Plains, the Great Lakes area and New England is going to be the hardest hit.”

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How does the Farmers’ Almanac obtain its long-term weather forecast?

The almanac’s first editor Robert B. Thomas was a mathematician, calculator and astronomer who wanted to predict the weather for farmers.

Mr Thomas developed a mathematical formula that is applied to sunspot activity, planetary position, the effect the Moon has on the Earth.

Mr Geiger told Express.co.uk: “This formula is what gives us our calculations.”

“Also, in 203 years there has only been seven prognosticators, so each person has done it for a long time.

“The formula and methodology remains the same, and this is how we go about doing it.

“And over the 203 years, we have a pretty good accuracy – we are told we are anywhere between 80 to 85 percent accurate.

“But it is up to people to decide how accurate we are.”



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