Sir John Curtice said the Tories might escape a predicted humiliation because of a lack of options attractive to Leave supporters. He said the absence of Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party on the ballot paper and a shortage of UKIP candidates could save the Prime Minister from humiliation. The Tories have been tipped to lose as many as 1,000 seats in what would be their worst result for 20 years.
But Sir John, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: “We have to remember that the Brexit Party is not on the ballot paper and UKIP are only fighting around one in six of the seats.
“So those Leave voters who are unhappy with the Conservatives over Brexit frankly face the choice in most of the local elections of either turning out to vote and still voting for the Conservatives – because I doubt that they’ll consider voting for Labour or the Lib Dems – or staying at home.
“Therefore, probably, the results won’t be quite as bad for the Conservatives as perhaps some of the impression you might have from the headline opinion polls.”
Conservative high command appears braced for a difficult result.
Elections are taking place in 248 English councils outside London, and 11 local authority areas in Northern Ireland.
There are also polls for six elected mayors in Bedford, Copeland, Leicester, Mansfield, Middlesbrough and the new North of Tyne devolved regional authority.
The elections come with the Prime Minister under fire for failing to deliver Brexit on March 29 and now embroiled in fresh controversy after sacking Defence Secretry Gavin Williamson for leaving details from a National Security Council meeting.
Close to 60 percent of the 8,425 seats up for grabs in England are Conservative, with a quarter held by Labour.
The last time a majority of the seats were fought over in 2015, the Tories were on an electoral high as they secured their first Commons majority since 1992 on the same day.
Most of the electoral battles are in the Tory shires or Labour strongholds in northern cities, limiting the prospects for large-scale gains by Jeremy Corbyn’s party
