Limiting global warming to stricter targets would stop heat-related deaths of THOUSANDS of people every year who live in major cities, experts say
- Scientists say reducing the global warming limit by 0.5°C (0.9°F) will save lives
- Current commitments aim to keep global average temperature to below 2°C
- But the researchers say that reducing this further to 1.5°C will save thousands
- New York has 5798 deaths under 3C but under 1.5C, 2716 lives could be saved
Thousands of heat-related deaths could be avoided in major US cities if global temperatures are limited to stricter targets set by the Paris Agreement.
Scientists believe reducing the global warming limit by 0.5°C (0.9°F) – from 2°C (3.6°F) to 1.5°C (2.7°F) – would avoid between 110 to 2,720 deaths per city.
The Paris Agreement, a treaty between 175 parties (174 countries and the European Union) hopes to combat climate change and its devastating effects on the globe.
Current climate commitments under the agreement aim to keep global average temperature to well below 2°C, with an ambition of limiting warming to 1.5°C.
The new study which looked at climate projections for a warmer world and current temperature and mortality data says that this reduction would diminish cities’ exposure to extreme heat.
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Climate scientists from the UK and the US combined observed temperature and mortality data with climate projections of different warmer worlds to estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths for 15 major US cities
The current goal says that this could avoid 70 to 1,980 deaths per city.
The new study, led by the University of Bristol, has found that making this change now would result in far fewer deaths.
Record-setting heat waves in the southeastern United States over the past few weeks offer a stark reminder that extreme heat is on the rise.
This heat has led to tragic results including premature deaths, particularly in older adults, infants, children, and people with chronic diseases.
Per city | Number of deaths at 3C | (Lives saved) 1.5C vs 3C | (Lives saved) 2C vs 3C | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York | 5798 | 2716 | 1980 | ||||||
Los Angeles | 2561 | 1085 | 759 | ||||||
Miami | 2359 | 1235 | 894 | ||||||
Chicago | 1781 | 875 | 636 | ||||||
Philadelphia | 1484 | 684 | 500 | ||||||
Detroit | 1372 | 640 | 462 | ||||||
Dallas | 901 | 455 | 306 | ||||||
Houston | 792 | 352 | 254 | ||||||
Seattle | 725 | 384 | 279 | ||||||
Phoenix | 526 | 300 | 216 | ||||||
Washington DC | 486 | 235 | 174 | ||||||
Atlanta | 446 | 134 | 100 | ||||||
St Louis | 351 | 117 | 82 | ||||||
Boston | 330 | 158 | 115 | ||||||
San Francisco | 328 | 114 | 75 |
The climate scientists, from the UK and the US, combined observed temperature and mortality data with climate projections of different warmer worlds to estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths for 15 major US cities.
The team calculated that New York under 3°C had a staggering 5,798 deaths but under the 1.5°C limit, the number was significantly lower at 2,716.
Lead author, Dr Eunice Lo from the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute, said: ‘If global temperature rise is reduced to 1.5°C from where we are headed, the cities’ exposure to extreme heat would decrease and up to thousands of annual heat-related deaths could be avoided per city.
‘Strengthened climate actions are needed as they would substantially benefit public health in the United States.’
The Paris Agreement, a treaty between 175 parties hopes to halt the steady march of global warming. Current climate commitments under the agreement aim to keep global average temperature to well below 2°C, with an ambition of 1.5°C
Co-lead author, Professor Dann Mitchell, also from the University of Bristol’s Cabot Institute, added: ‘We are no longer counting the impact of climate in change in terms of degrees of global warming, but rather in terms of number of lives lost.
‘Our study brings together a wide range of physical and social complexities to show just how human lives could be impacted if we do not cut carbon emissions.
‘Considering the US citizens that will be adversely affected by increasing global temperatures, we strongly encourage them to hold their politicians to account.’
The Trump administration announced US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017.
However, the effective withdrawal date is not until 2020, and states including New York and California are still committed to achieving the US climate goal within the agreement.