Labour will find politics of immigration easier as net migration drops

Good morning. A new poll shows an old story about the UK and immigration: that people welcome general measures to reduce it but oppose any actual action to do so. Some thoughts below on how that will shape the politics of immigration over the next five years.

Policy conundrum

The big picture reason why immigration causes British governments a political headache is that most British voters repeatedly say that immigration is too high, and will vote for parties promising to reduce it. But they then oppose pretty much all specific levers governments might pull to actually reduce any of those flows. Nor has the British electorate ever demonstrated a real willingness to bear higher costs as a result of lower immigration.

The latest example of that comes via YouGov, which shows public dismay at a reduction in the number of people coming to the UK via the social care worker visa.

Net migration will almost certainly fall over the course of this parliamentary term, because it reached its highest figure on record under the Conservatives — partly resulting from a one-off bulge in immigration after the pandemic and refugees coming to Britain from Ukraine and Hong Kong. This will in part make the politics of immigration easier for Labour to navigate during the parliament.

There are a number of reasons why I think that, absent some kind of crisis or a self-inflicted wound, Labour will be re-elected. Although the government has a bad inheritance in some respects, in others, it is well-positioned to be able to point to moderate “improvement” as far as most people are concerned. (But one way that Labour could end up suffering a self-inflicted wound is precisely by chasing voter sentiment over immigration in ways that hurt UK growth and create further pressures on public spending.)

In the longer run, that British voters tend to oppose high levels of legal immigration generally but dislike any of the levers you might actually be able to pull to reduce it is a big problem for whichever party is in government, and it will continue to be so.

Now try this

In search of an air-conditioned place to spend the evening, I went to the cinema (American readers, feel free to laugh at me). I’m glad I did because it meant I saw Thelma, a delightful action comedy starring June Squibb as a nonagenarian grandmother who, after being defrauded of $10,000, steals a friend’s gun and goes looking for revenge. It’s sweet without being saccharine and has moments of real power and wisdom, and features a marvellous performance by Richard Roundtree, in his final screen role. Danny Leigh’s review is here.

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