Labour set for record vote share in Assembly elections but will miss majority, poll reveals

Labour is heading for a record vote haul in this year’s elections for the London Assembly, but it will fall just short of a majority, research indicates.

Polling by YouGov for Queen Mary University of London put Labour up five points since the 2016 contest in the party list vote, at 45 per cent. In the constituency section, the party was up three, to 47 per cent.

The Conservative shares were unchanged, at 29 per cent for the list section and 31 per cent in the constituency battlegrounds.  

On May 7 Londoners will cast two votes for the Assembly, one for a local representative and another for a party list of spare candidates. Under a complex proportional representation system, the list seats are used to “top up” each party’s share of seats to match their overall vote.

Professor Philip Cowley, of Queen Mary’s Mile End Institute, estimated that Labour would win Havering and  Redbridge on a uniform swing, but lose one of their list seats to remain on 12 out of the 25 seats — one seat short of a majority.

Professor Cowley said: “For Labour these figures would mean record vote shares — indeed, they would set a record for any party since the Assembly was created. By contrast, the Conservatives have stood still on their position four years earlier.”

The Liberal Democrats and the Greens were both up overall in the poll. The Greens had a 12 per cent share in the London-wide vote, which Professor Cowley said would be their best-ever performance if replicated on the night.

The Brexit party is on two per cent overall — in 2016 Ukip was around seven per cent.

The study found Labour enjoys a markedly bigger lead among women, at 22 percentage points, compared with 11 among men.  They are ahead in the critical outer London battleground which the Conservatives regard as their best territory. 

“The composition of the Assembly after the election will most likely look very similar to how it does now, albeit with slightly more Green and Lib Dem members,” Professor Cowley added.

YouGov polled 1,002 adult Londoners from March 2 to 6.