Keir Starmer has taken the lead in the race to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, according to the first poll of party members.
The YouGov poll shows the shadow Brexit Secretary, who has said he’s “seriously considering” running, would beat Rebecca Long Bailey in a final run-off.
Under the party’s preferential voting system, candidates are knocked out if none gets above 50% of the vote, until just two are left.
This would result in a final round in which bookies’ favourite Sir Keir would beat Ms Long Bailey, seen as the continuity Corbyn candidate, by 61% to 39%.
Labour moderate Jess Phillips would come third on 11%, followed by Yvette Cooper and Clive Lewis on 7%, Emily Thornberry on 6% and Lisa Nandy on 5%.
(Image: PA)
The poll suggests Sir Keir would beat the shadow business secretary in every age group, region and among men and women, but not among those who voted Leave in 2016.
The pair were also neck-and-neck among working-class members.
The majority of Labour members backed Remain and Sir Keir has been seen as a strong voice for them around the shadow cabinet table.
(Image: AFP via Getty Images)
However, his close association with Remain will have faded by the time of the next election, when Labour will have to win back thousands of Leave voters.
Professor Tim Bale of Queen Mary University of London told the Guardian: “This is not shaping up to be a 2015-style Labour leadership contest. Unless potential candidates drop out before the start of voting, it may take a few rounds to decide the winner this time around.
“But it doesn’t look at the moment as if the winner will come from the left of the party. Right now anyway, Keir Starmer looks to be heading for a fairly emphatic victory.”
YouGov polled 1059 Labour members for the Economic and Social Research Council. However, affiliates and registered supporters, who may get the chance to vote in the contest, were not included.
