Boris Johnson hopes to secure a big breakthrough on Tuesday in his battle to deliver Brexit on October 31, as he tries to ram legislation through the House of Commons to enact his EU exit deal in just three days.
Downing Street believes Mr Johnson is on course to secure a narrow victory when MPs vote on his Withdrawal Agreement bill, although the backlash was furious over his attempt to railroad the whole legislation process through parliament with extremely limited scrutiny.
Financial Times analysis of MPs’ positions suggests Mr Johnson could scrape home by 320 to 315 when the Commons votes on the “in principle” second reading of the bill — the first time MPs would have backed any Brexit deal.
Confidence was also growing in Number 10 that Mr Johnson could head off attempts by opposition MPs to attach a second “confirmatory” referendum to a Brexit deal and a separate amendment to keep Britain in a customs union with the EU.
MPs only received their first sight of the complex Brexit legislation on Monday night.
Sajid Javid, chancellor, faced stinging criticism over his failure to provide an economic analysis of Mr Johnson’s vision of a future UK/EU trading relationship.
Catherine McKinnell, acting chair of the Commons Treasury committee, said that MPs were being asked “to vote blindly” on Mr Johnson’s exit deal, which includes a political declaration committing both sides to a loose, Canada-style trade deal.
Mr Johnson’s vision would create more friction on trade between Britain and the EU. His predecessor Theresa May’s Brexit plan would have seen a much closer relationship on regulations and customs. Many economists say it is likely to lead to lower growth.
Mr Javid said he would provide analysis at “appropriate points” but Jonathan Haskel, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee, tweeted: “I do think it would help to have some detail on what the economic impact of the deal would be.”
Jacob Rees-Mogg, leader of the Commons, said he wanted the bill to complete all its stages in the lower house by Thursday — with two sittings until midnight — before going to the House of Lords, which will sit at the weekend.
The Withdrawal Agreement bill was finally published at 8pm on Monday, running to 110 pages and 125 pages of explanatory notes.
Keir Starmer, Labour Brexit spokesman, said: “It is outrageous to deny parliament the chance to scrutinise this incredibly important legislation properly. Ministers are trying to bounce MPs into signing off a bill that could cause huge damage to our country.”
Labour MP Owen Smith accused the government of seeking to “ram through” the bill.
But Mr Johnson’s plan faces a number of big hurdles, firstly securing the bill’s second reading. Although 28 hardline Tory Eurosceptics who opposed Mrs May’s deal in March are expected to back the new deal, the vote is still on a knife edge.
A big battle will then ensue over the “timetable motion” proposed by Mr Rees-Mogg to rush the legislation through the Commons. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and other opposition parties oppose the frenetic schedule.
If MPs insist on having more time to scrutinise the legislation, it would scupper Mr Johnson’s ability to deliver Brexit by October 31. The EU would then be expected to offer the prime minister a short extension.
Any delay to the process would also wreck Mr Johnson’s hopes of delivering Brexit and then dashing to the polls in a general election before Christmas.
Downing Street officials are divided over how to respond if they were to lose a vote on an amendment to stay in the EU customs union. Some say Mr Johnson might abandon the bill and demand a general election. “It would be seen as a wrecking amendment,” said one ally of the prime minister.
However, others think Mr Johnson would proceed with the bill. A customs union amendment would only apply to the future UK/EU relationship and would not affect the withdrawal agreement itself. “We’ve come this far,” said another aide.
Mr Johnson could promise Tory Eurosceptics that he could overturn any amendment after a general election victory and then pursue with the EU the looser “Canada-style” trade deal that he favours.
Earlier John Bercow, Commons Speaker, rejected Mr Johnson’s attempt to hold a second “meaningful vote” to approve his new Brexit deal. Mr Bercow said the manoeuvre was “repetitive”, forcing Mr Johnson to wait until Tuesday’s second reading vote on the bill enacting the deal.
