At this time yesterday, in a fit of optimism as it rained at the Rose Bowl, I drummed up a hypothetical where the World Test Championship was tied from the final ball of the sixth day. Sure, fantasty stuff. But the point I was making was that there was enough time for both sides to win – albeit just. Everything needed to sequence just right with so few overs left in the match.
In my little scenario, India would be 200/5 coming into the final day, having knocked off New Zealand for exactly 217 – something like that. Instead, they are 64/2 coming into this sixth morning, some 32 runs in the lead. But here’s the familiar kicker: of the 91 overs scheduled for yesterday, just 80.3 were delivered. Ten were burned.
I’m mindful how boring it is to bang on about over rates all the time – I’d rather this never came up again. But a day like yesterday, in a match where time is so scarce due to the two days lost to rain, reinforces the extent to which the current system does not work.
Crude as it is, consider where India might be as the resumption today had they been able to face a further ten overs before the close last night? Because they only bowled 23 in the first session of the fifth day, that was never going to happen. Equally, how many more wickets the Black Caps might’ve taken had they bowled 38 in the extended final session (the expectation) rather than 30?
So, due to this tardiness, both sides are less likely again to force a result today, the draw – according to CricViz – in the box seat at a probability of 73%, which feels about right to me.
There’s only one solution here: in-play sanctions. In other words: penalty runs. We’ve seen how that has served as a potent price signal in the T20 Blast in England, and there’s no reason to think it wouldn’t do a lot more at international level than fines. It’s hard to imagine any player in this final is going to notice the 20 per cent of the match fee they are likely to lose for yesterday.
Alright, that’s the last I’ll say on the matter for the time being as I don’t want to derail the conversation on what still could be a classic finish, however challenging. It was only January when this Indian side stunned the world from a similarly unlikely position at the Gabba, and with Kohli at the crease (and Pant to come) there is a world where they put the foot down and chance their hand.
Likewise, with the ball still moving around – and Tim Southee bowling like a dream – this slick New Zealand seam quartet might get busy in the first hour and open the game up their way. The key will be not to snatch at it – they could afford to take 40/45 overs to take the remaining eight wickets and still mount a realistic chase.
We should be so lucky. I’m looking forward to your company.
