Politics

I could not be in a government that advocated a no-deal Brexit | Stephen Hammond


A new prime minister enters Downing Street promising to help the less advantaged, bring prosperity and opportunity to every area of the country, and make a success of Brexit. Conservative MPs cheer, a new era begins and there is a bounce in the polls. Three years ago that was Theresa May, and the rest, as they say, is history. Our new prime minister is well versed in history, so undoubtedly he will know the famous quote that history repeats itself first as tragedy, then as farce.

Last week I left the government. I would not have signed up to Boris Johnson’s pledge to leave the European Union on 31 October with no deal if necessary. Initially he said leaving without a deal was a “million-to-one” possibility. However, the rhetoric soon changed to the more confrontational tone of “do or die”. He has even rejected negotiations over a time limit to the Irish backstop. Now only a completely new withdrawal agreement would be acceptable. New red lines have been introduced for the political declaration that will shape our ongoing relationship with our former partners. There is talk of no-deal preparations being ramped up, but in reality these are mitigations.

While no-dealers celebrate, the sensible majority are concerned. Brexit should not mean no deal. An optimist might say the cause for hope is that this strategy will see movement from the EU and if, as a result, we secure a change to the backstop this allows Johnson to present a repackaged deal to parliament in the autumn. In the unlikely event that this happens, I shall vote for Johnson’s deal, as I did three times for May’s.


Boris Johnson says the Irish backstop is ‘no good, it’s dead’ – video

Brexit and no deal are not the same thing. The former will allow an orderly exit from our 46-year association with the EU. In contrast, the latter means a traumatic break in trading relationships, economic upheaval and disruption to travel and health arrangements. We shall resort to World Trade Organization terms with likely higher tariffs, trade barriers and food costs.

After a no-deal exit our negotiating position will be weaker. The pound is likely to have fallen, causing prices to rise for every citizen; trade will have been hampered; no new trade deals will have been signed; and the promised post-Brexit investment will not have yet boosted the economy. So in any post-no-deal talks with Europe, Britain will be in a weaker economic position and the EU is still likely to demand the £39bn divorce bill negotiated by May, as well as the terms of the withdrawal agreement.

I understand that there are passionately held views about Brexit. Many in the new government were content to defy the Conservative whip and ultimately destroyed May’s premiership due to their beliefs. But Brexit and no deal have hugely different consequences. I know many firm Brexiteers who recognise the challenges of no deal so they want us to leave the EU in an orderly way. I would describe myself as a pro-deal Conservative. I voted to remain but as a democrat I backed May’s deal. However, like many Conservatives I firmly believe it would be wrong and against our nation’s interests to leave the EU without a deal.

The media reports that the new prime minister has promised a 31 October Brexit “by any means necessary”, but he also understands that our country is a parliamentary democracy and that he must ensure majority support in the Commons for his Brexit policy. As a leading Vote Leave campaigner, he was also an enthusiastic proponent of the notion that Brexit would allow us to take back our sovereignty, to make our own laws. Yet to stop parliament sitting to express a view would make a mockery of that claim and in effect mean our sovereignty was in the hands not of the people but of the government. Johnson knows he has a wafer-thin majority and there are many pro-deal Conservatives, like me, both on the backbenches and in his government, with a passionately held belief that no deal must never happen. Therefore I am convinced he will ultimately reject any aide’s advice to prorogue parliament.

I hope the prime minister will spend the summer visiting European capitals negotiating a deal that he can secure a parliamentary majority for. A deal is available to him but would require compromise on the backstop. Instead of shouting no deal, it is time to recognise that a decision and a plan is required, to put aside ideology and embrace pragmatism. Some have called me a rebel and a mutineer for advocating this compromise. The reality is I am an economic pragmatist and pro-business.

Johnson has written about his hero Winston Churchill’s place in history. If he gets a deal with the EU that guarantees the UK’s economic prosperity, security and citizens’ rights, then he will secure his.

Stephen Hammond is the Conservative MP for Wimbledon and a former health minister



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