If Jeremy Hunt was personified by a place, it would be Guildford: prosperous, unruffled and perhaps a little bland. With chinos and shirt and rolled-up sleeves, the foreign secretary and outside contender to be the next British prime minister blended impeccably into the Surrey town during a campaign visit this week.
On a sizzling afternoon, he nipped into The Keep pub to pull a pint of “delicious” beer from the village of Shere where he grew up. He charmed Tory activists, posed for pictures with Frankie the chocolate puppy and raised a toast to his rival. “Cheers Boris if you’re watching. May the best man win,” he said.
In these deep blue Conservative party heartlands, Mr Hunt’s pitch to beat Boris Johnson to the Tory party leadership is potent. His slogan as a respected deal-sealing entrepreneur is well-received but it lacks the impact and excitement of his rival. And time is running out for Mr Hunt to make headway in a contest that is almost over.
This week was decisive, as the first ballot papers arrived on the doormats of the Tories’ 160,000 activists who will decide the election. With more than half of the party’s MPs already behind Mr Johnson and many activists following their lead, Mr Hunt has made one final heave to try to win over unconvinced members.
If he is gaining momentum, it’s hard to find any hard evidence to prove it. There are few formal polls of the Conservative electorate; the best indication comes from the polls on the grassroots website ConservativeHome. Their latest survey reported 29 per cent are supporting Mr Hunt, compared with 67 per cent for the frontrunner. The bookmakers’ Ladbrokes are offering odds of 7/1 to win versus 1/12 for Mr Johnson.
Even in his home territory, Tory members are leaning towards the frontrunner. Shaun Donovan-Smith, an activist and long-term friend of Mr Hunt, said about 65 per cent of his association had initially backed Mr Johnson.
“But on the undecideds, they seem to be breaking quite heavily towards Jeremy and that’s where we’re seeing the movement,” said Mr Donovan-Smith.
Others are more cautious, given how little is known about the electorate. “Many members have told me that they’re not sure which way they want to go,” said Denise Le Gal, chair of the South West Surrey Conservative association where Mr Hunt is the MP. “Some have said to me their heart is with Boris, but their head is with Jeremy.”
Mr Hunt entered the final part of the race as the underdog, hoping to improve his standing by raising questions about Mr Johnson’s suitability for the top job — attacking him as a “coward” for ducking several televised debates and questioning his “character” for the top job.
When Mr Johnson faced difficult questions over his personal life, after police visited the flat he shared with partner Carrie Symonds amid reports of a noisy row, these attacks had some purchase. But as the contest has returned to its core issues — Brexit and the future of the Tory party — Mr Hunt has reverted to policy, with sometimes unexpected announcements.
His decision to pledge a future vote on bringing back fox hunting was widely seen in Westminster as an effort to connect with the party’s activists. One Hunt-supporter described it as “desperate”
“Some of the things Hunt has come out with have been just bizarre. I think it’s because he has done over 70 hours of interviews during the contest. The more media you do, the more mistakes you’ll make,” the MP said.
Mr Hunt began the contest with a softer Brexit stance than his rival, warning that a no-deal Brexit would be “political suicide” for the Conservative party. Yet this week he has hardened his line, following in Mr Johnson’s wake by setting out a 10-point plan to mitigate the impact of leaving without a deal on October 31.
On Friday, Mr Hunt and Mr Johnson took part in hustings in Darlington in the north east of England — a Leave-voting constituency that the Tories have not won since 1987 and a top target at the next general election.
Mr Johnson’s performance was well suited to the Hippodrome theatre, heavy on entertainment and light on detail. His promise that parmo — a local delicacy of breaded chicken or pork topped with two types of cheese — would be protected in the event of a no-deal Brexit was greeted with cheers and applause.
In contrast Mr Hunt garnered just one laugh. His polished performance was relaxed, but failed to make the same connection with the audience.
Tories leaving the event were positive about both men, noting that Mr Hunt was “a proper Tory” and a “normal talented man”, although one said he was “more Surrey than Sunderland”.
One local Hunt supporter in Darlington said: “I do think Jeremy has momentum. Were it a three-month “two horse race” campaign, I reckon he might have a good chance, but I don’t think he has enough time to tip it sadly.”
After the difficult three years of Theresa May’s premiership, the party appears to be in no mood to opt for the safe option of Mr Hunt. As one Tory MP put it: “I guess he is the nice safe son-in-law. Boris is the one your daughter falls in love with and will have an exciting if unpredictable life with him.”
