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How generational split is shaping UK election pitches


Labour’s election advertisements have adopted a new slogan: “On your side”. It is a handy tag that can be added to messages promoting a collection of policies that make promises to disparate groups.

Some, like promoting a plan for dramatically increased supply of social housing, target the young: “If you’re a first-time buyer, Labour is on your side.” Others target voters further up the age scale: “1950s women, Labour is on your side” is designed for so-called “Waspi” women, who were affected by a sharp rise in the state pension age.

Voting behaviour diverges dramatically between the generations. Among the under-35s, Labour enjoys a large polling lead, but this flips for those over 40, with older voters disproportionately supporting the Conservatives. They also turn out to vote in greater numbers. In the 2017 election, only 57 per cent of 18- to 19-year-olds voted, compared with 84 per cent of the over-70s, according to YouGov research.

But while Labour is attempting to appeal across the age divide, the Conservative platform, which maintains the “triple lock” that guarantees pensioner income levels and promises a generous, if vague, increase in social care provision, appears aimed at older voters. Experts say the Tories’ strategy will help in this election but sets up problems in assembling a winning coalition of voters in the long term.

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The Tories’ focus on the older cohort is partly a consequence of the party throwing its lot in with those who voted Leave in the Brexit referendum, according to Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary, University of London. “They have moved more towards representing those voters who are more socially conservative, more of those without, for example, a university degree,” he said.

But Prof Bale pointed out that, while it is “rational” to skew policies towards the most reliable supporters, “in the long term that may or may not be a good idea because those less educated voters also tend to be older: yes they vote more but, putting it bluntly, they’re also a wasting asset”.

During Theresa May’s premiership, the Conservatives attempted to recapture some younger voters, but some analysts see the party’s current campaign as a sign they have “written off” this entire demographic.

SHEFFIELD, UNITED KINGDOM - NOVEMBER 22: Students protest outside The Octagon Centre ahead of the BBC Question Time leaders' special on November 22, 2019 in Sheffield, England. The leaders of the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and the SNP will be taking part in the live General Election Question Time special, hosted by Fiona Bruce, and will each have 30 minutes to answer questions from the audience. (Photo by Anthony Devlin/Getty Images)
Students turned out in force to protest against the Tories when the BBC held a Question Time leaders’ special in Sheffield in November © Getty

“Certainly a year or so ago, the Tories were very keen to pull the youth vote back,” said Jonathan Simons, an education policy expert and former Conservative adviser. “Hence commissioning Augar [the independent review of student finance], and thinking about housing and their green push under Gove,” he said.

With Boris Johnson’s focus on consolidating the Brexit vote, this has changed. “The heat has gone out of the tuition fee debate . . . they’re more focused on older, less educated, Leave voters in the north — and essentially have concluded that they’ve lost the youth vote because of Brexit and their strategy is now to ignore them,” Mr Simons added.

Torsten Bell, of the Resolution Foundation think-tank, agreed that the party has dropped its May era “pivot” towards younger voters — it had been outbid by Labour on access to housing, for example. The party is “so constrained on the fiscal position that they can’t do too much to woo the young”, he said.

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Meanwhile the Liberal Democrats’ flagship promise of free childcare for all two- to four-year-olds, is likely to appeal to a middle-aged group that analysts describe as more “nebulous”, with a variety of policy needs that are harder to directly target. Chris Hanretty, professor of politics at Royal Holloway, University of London, said this cohort could be the true marginal voters, united by a sense of “frustrated expectations”.

Paula Surridge, a political sociologist at Bristol university, warned: “Watch this age group more closely than ‘young voters’ or students. It’s much bigger and more volatile.”

Prof Hanretty added it was hard to quantify the electoral impact of narrow policies, such as Labour’s promise to Waspi women. “It’s not clear that people respond fast enough to offers to their age group,” he said.

In a new paper on the party manifestos, the Resolution Foundation called for a “renewal of the generational contract” through tackling not just social care, but revamped wealth and property taxes and better work and housing prospects for young adults.

Mr Bell said it would be desirable to build a coalition of voters willing to tackle intergenerational unfairness because it is “a concern for everyone” — but he pointed out that difficult choices between demographic groups can’t be avoided: “There will still be actual trade-offs,” he said.

University seats

From North East Fife — the most marginal seat in the country, where the Scottish National party is defending a two-vote majority — to Cambridge, Canterbury, Southampton Itchen, Oxford West and Abingdon, Cardiff Central and others, constituencies with a large student population are hard fought at general elections.

Policy embarrassments for all three main parties over rising undergraduate tuition fees have seen them change hands regularly. Students were pushed first into the arms of the Liberal Democrats in protest at Labour’s introduction of fees during the Blair government; in 2015 and 2017 they pivoted towards Labour after the Tory-Lib Dem coalition tripled the annual charges and slashed maintenance payments.

The most recent poll tracking student voting intentions, by Youthsight market research and the Higher Education Policy Institute, shows Labour in front ahead of next week’s vote, with the Conservatives and Lib Dems trailing.

Bad weather and the end of the university term may depress turnout among students on December 12. And in spite of a late surge in voter registration, some political scientists say they are dubious that the choices of this group will swing many seats.

But analysis by the policy website WonkHE has found that in seats where the term ends well after polling day, and where a concerted action by both students and staff (an often-forgotten group who also affect the anti-Conservative tendency of university towns) could have an impact on the result. One of them is Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency, home to Brunel University.





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