Health

How does Britain get out of the bunker if the coronavirus curve flattens?


Boris Johnson‘s poll ratings have been holding up up to now as the coronavirus crisis engulfs the country and the world. 

But Downing Street is well aware that the situation could turn very quickly with the extraordinary restrictions being imposed on the everyday life of Britons.

Advisors have warned that one of the main risks the government faces is a perception of ‘incompetence’.

And the spiralling shambles over the failure to ramp up testing numbers could be a critical moment of danger, as it is increasingly regarded as the only route out of lockdown.  

Ministers have been accused of first ignoring warnings from experts about the the need for mass checks – and then bungling efforts to ramp up numbers. 

Despite claims at the weekend that the UK has hit 10,000 diagnostic tests a day, it has emerged the authorities have still not reached that level – although apparently the ‘capacity’ is there. 

No10 has admitted that the PM’s goal of 25,000 a day might not be achieve until the second half of April, by which time the outbreak might have peaked. 

Meanwhile, countries such as Germany and South Korea are managing to conduct many times more checks – an effort likely to be critical in reducing the death toll. 

There is also no clarity as to when the UK will have antibody tests that can be used to assess who has already been through the disease, and emerged with immunity. 

Countries such as Germany and South Korea are managing to conduct many times more checks than the UK - and their lockdowns could end sooner as a result. Pictured is a technician at a lab in Berlin

Countries such as Germany and South Korea are managing to conduct many times more checks than the UK – and their lockdowns could end sooner as a result. Pictured is a technician at a lab in Berlin

Health workers are now starting to be routinely checked for current symptoms, to keep them in the battle against the disease. PIctured is a drive-through station in Chessington this week

Health workers are now starting to be routinely checked for current symptoms, to keep them in the battle against the disease. PIctured is a drive-through station in Chessington this week

The government says it is ordering 17.5million but refuses to give details of where from and when they will pass clinical assessments.

Health Committee chair Jeremy Hunt has questioned is genuinely committed to community testing. 

The reasons for the chaos remain shrouded in mystery, with senior ministers admitting they are struggling with the complexity of the situation. 

Scientists have complained that labs at research institutions and firms are sitting unused, due to Public Health England’s determination to keep control over conducting tests. 

Cabinet minister Michael Gove last night blamed global shortages in chemicals, but the industry has dismissed the idea saying the NHS is being supplied with what it needs.   

There have been reports that NHS England has been accidentally embroiled in a bidding war with NHS Wales for kits. 

By contrast, Germany has benefited from domestic biotech firms that manufacture testing kits.

Whatever the reasons, the economy is now on the line – with ministers warned that unless they get through the problems within weeks and can point to an endpoint for lockdown, thousands of firms could go bust.

But how could mass testing help the UK to pick itself up and get back to normal before permanent damage is done to out way of life? 

WORK OUT WHO IS SAFE 

Antibody testing has been hailed as a ‘game-changer’ because it would boost NHS resource and allow the first fledgling signs of economic remobilisation.

It would also answer one of the biggest questions – what proportion of Britons have had a very mild version of the virus without even knowing it. 

In the first instance, frontline health staff could be allowed to return to duty knowing they will not infect patients, lessening the threat that the service is swamped by the outbreak. 

But with enough tests the benefit can be spread beyond the NHS. Key workers could be put back into circulation, shoring up power networks – where there have been warnings of blackouts – broadband and bin collections.  

On an even wider scale, ‘immunity certificates’ have been mooted for those who have antibodies – so they are clear to go back into some semblance of normal life. 

That kind of initiative could give companies worried about the future more wriggle room, and convince them to keep on fighting rather than wind up operations. 

And it could slowly lead to the lockdown being eased so ‘non-essential’ activities creep back into everyday life.

Any essential worker who is antibody positive can go back to work without worrying whether or not they are putting themselves or their families at risk. 

Professor Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia, said last week that antibody tests would be ‘essential’ to recovering from the epidemic.

He said: ‘For people who are particularly vulnerable and taking even greater distancing measures could relax these if they are shown to be immune.’

He added: ‘When a vaccine first becomes available it is likely to be in short supply. Such an antibody test would help make what vaccine is available go further as testing would allow the vaccine be used just for people who are not already immune.’  

Science and Technology Committee chair Greg Clark told MailOnline that if the government can get the antibody test, blunders on antigen testing might be forgotten.

‘That would be the big gamechanger. It is very unfortunate that we haven’t had the degree of antigen testing that other countries have had but if we deploy this at the scale of millions they are talking about that would allow us to catch up and be ahead of other countries,’ he said.

Tube trains have been far quieter as large sections of the economy shut down. But testing could free people with immunity to start travelling to work again

Tube trains have been far quieter as large sections of the economy shut down. But testing could free people with immunity to start travelling to work again 

WORK OUT WHERE THE VIRUS IS 

The World Health Organisation says unless you are carrying out mass coronavirus testing it is like ‘trying to fight a fire blindfolded’.

Health workers are now starting to be routinely checked for current symptoms, to keep them in the battle against the disease. 

However, large-scale checks would be a quantum leap forward, allowing the authorities to identify hotspots, track how the outbreak is spreading, and adjust policies accordingly. 

Localised explosions of disease could be met with an intensive response.  

London and the Midlands are seeing considerably more cases than other areas. 

The Government’s own experts have suggested the tightness of the lockdown could be varied by region and over time, with those not at high risk allowed to go about their business more freely.

Fears of a ‘second peak’ in the outbreak if restrictions are eased would also be eased if there is better surveillance.

Health Select committee chair Mr Hunt said: ‘The reason that mass community testing is so important is partly because it is a lot less disruptive to the economy than the big lockdowns we have seen in most of Europe. Offices, shops, restaurants are still open in most of those Asian countries.

‘But much more importantly in Wuhan they found that the lockdown brought the reproductive rate of the virus down to 1.25. Remember you are trying to get it down below one.

‘But it wasn’t until they had mass testing in the community, quarantining ofC19 patients and people with C19 symptoms, when they did that they got the reproductive rate below one.

‘So it is internationally proven as the most effective way of breaking the chain of transmission.’ 

Shuttered shops on deserted streets in Whitley Bay amid the coronavirus lockdown

Shuttered shops on deserted streets in Whitley Bay amid the coronavirus lockdown

BREATHE LIFE BACK INTO BUSINESS 

Confidence will be key in keeping the UK’s economic capacity from effectively disintegrating during lockdown.

Former Cabinet minister Lord Hague has warned that thousands of firms could wind up their operations within weeks unless they can see an end to the swingeing restrictions that are robbing them of customers and the workforce.

Solid information about the prevalence of the disease, who has it. and who is immune from it will allow businesses to plan.

Many say that easing the lockdown faster than six months is essential to their survival.

Experts says that is unlikely to be possible even in part unless there is mass testing. Unless they believe the government is serious about fighting the disease, the end for many firms could come sooner rather than later. 

Scottish entrepreneur Duncan Bannatyne told MailOnline the Government’s ‘dismal’ handling of the testing crisis will send vast numbers of British businesses to the wall – and delay the country’s economic recovery.

The gym mogul and former Dragons’ Den star said: ‘The Government must get on top of testing immediately. The longer we are in lockdown the more businesses will go bust. My business hands over £39million to the Government every year in VAT, PAYE and corporation tax. As long as we are closed they get nothing.’

LOOK OUT FOR HERD IMMUNITY 

Mass testing will allow health authorities to work out how many people are immune to the coronavirus and whether the UK, or smaller areas within it, are anywhere close to herd immunity.

The concept of herd immunity hit headlines earlier this month when senior Government advisers said they wanted to develop it to protect the country, a strategy which experts said could have cost thousands of lives.

Herd immunity will still develop naturally as more people recover from COVID-19 and it could protect the nation in future outbreaks.

It happens when so many people have had the illness already and become immune to it that the virus cannot spread properly through the population.

Sir Patrick Vallance, Downing Street’s chief scientific adviser, suggested that up to 60 per cent of the population would need to have been infected for this to work.

But it will be impossible to know how many people have recovered from the virus without carrying out mass antibody testing, which reveals whether someone has ever been infected.

If a significant number of people in a city, county or region, for example, have already recovered from COVID-19 it could be safe for that area to start to ease restrictions.

Or if this outbreak is successfully stopped and another one starts in the winter or next year, understanding how many people have already had the illness could make it easier for the Government to decide how dramatically to respond.

It’s likely that the current situation will be the most severe action that ever needs to be taken against this particular virus.

Writing in the Mail on Sunday last week, Jeremy Hunt said only testing would allow the country to move forward against the disease.

He wrote: ‘If we are to reduce the pressure on the NHS later in the year when the virus could well be back, we need to start ramping up Asian-style testing now…

‘Mass social distancing will help flatten the curve, but only testing will save us from months, maybe years, of anguish and economic paralysis.’   



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