- Robyn Turk
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The National Retail Federation expects retail sales made during the
holiday season between November and December to increase between 3.8
and 4.2 percent in the U.S., compared to results from 2018. If the
NRF’s predictions are correct, holiday spending will grow to a total
somewhere between 727.9 billion and 730.7 billion dollars.
Holiday sales during the 2018 season totaled to 701.2 billion
dollars, which was an unusually small increase of 2.1 percent from the
year before. The NRF attributed this to the government shutdown, stock
market volatility and tariffs, among other socioeconomic issues.
The NRF based its holiday forecast on an economic model that
considers indicators such as employment, wages, consumer confidence,
disposable income, consumer credit and previous retail sales.
“The U.S. economy is continuing to grow and consumer spending is
still the primary engine behind that growth,” NRF President and CEO
Matthew Shay said in a statement. “Nonetheless, there has clearly been
a slowdown brought on by considerable uncertainty around issues
including trade, interest rates, global risk factors and political
rhetoric. Consumers are in good financial shape and retailers expect a
strong holiday season. However, confidence could be eroded by
continued deterioration of these and other variables.”
The NRF also said that it expects online and other non-store sales
to increase by 11 percent to 14 percent in 2019, which would bring
these sales from last year’s total of 146.5 billion dollars to
somewhere between 162.6 billion to 166.9 billion dollars.
