Money

Greensill expected £22bn flotation that could have meant Cameron windfall


Greensill Capital was considering a £22bn stock market flotation – a figure that dwarfs previous estimates and implied a potential nine-figure windfall for its adviser David Cameron – only weeks before the former prime minister’s intensive government lobbying.

The new figure is revealed in a presentation for the company’s board in late January 2020 by its bankers Credit Suisse, which outlined plans to position “Greensill for a premium valuation”, described the lender as a “once in a generation” company that “any growth investor must own”.

The document, which has been seen by the Guardian, benchmarked the now-collapsed Greensill against financial giants such as Mastercard and PayPal.

It said the company’s exponential growth over the following three years would be supported by key “stakeholders” including Cameron, Masayoshi Son, the boss of Greensill investor SoftBank, and Julie Bishop, Australia’s former minister of foreign affairs, who was also an adviser to the firm.

It concluded: “Credit Suisse is confident Greensill can achieve a valuation in excess of US$30bn [£22bn] equity value.”

Previous reports have suggested that Cameron was granted a stake of around 1% in Greensill for his advisory role, which implies the former prime minister could have been anticipating a windfall of around £200m at that time – assuming the Credit Suisse valuation was achieved.

That kind of wealth would have placed Cameron alongside the likes of the Formula One driver Lewis Hamilton and films stars Catherine Zeta-Jones and Michael Douglas in the Sunday Times rich list.

The $30bn valuation represents a snapshot in early 2020, prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, of Greensill’s ambitions for a future flotation. The lender however started to face “significant pressure” months later, as the spread of the coronavirus sent markets into turmoil.

When Greensill tried to raise more funds from new investors at lower valuation in late 2020 it was unsuccessful, with the company eventually collapsing in spring this year.

However the Credit Suisse presentation gives an indication of the vast sums Cameron may have anticipated earning from his work for Greensill when, in early 2020, he embarked on an intensive lobbying campaign across Whitehall on behalf of his employer.

Revelations about the way Cameron pressed ministers and civil servants to support Greensill’s business have prompted eight separate inquiries.

On Thursday it emerged that Cameron had repeatedly pushed the Bank of England and the Treasury to risk up to £20bn in taxpayer cash to help Greensill during March and April 2020, just weeks after the creation of the Credit Suisse document and as the lender started to face “significant” financial pressure at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Cameron urged Bank officials at that time to support Greensill by providing it with access to the Covid corporate financing facility (CCFF), a government scheme that bought loans from financial services companies.

During the same period Cameron also sent multiple texts to the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, in an effort to gain access to the same 100% government-backed loan programme – an endeavour that ultimately proved unsuccessful as Greensill never gained access to the scheme.

However, the company was later accredited to the coronavirus large business interruption loan scheme (CLBILS), handing it the ability to offer government-backed loans of up to £50m.

Credit Suisse declined to comment on the contents of its presentation. A source close to the bank confirmed to the Guardian that the $30bn valuation was based on Greensill’s own business plan, and that the Swiss bank was hoping to be appointed to work on the stock market listing.

A Greensill source added that the company was, in early 2020, projecting a public offering with a valuation worth tens of billions of dollars.

Cameron declined to comment on the record, although a source close to the former prime minister said: “These figures are all in the realms of fantasy. The company attempted to raise funds at a fraction of that value and ultimately failed.”

A City source who has been involved in floating companies for more than three decades said any bank bidding to manage a stock market flotation would be “silly to go for too much more than what it thinks [is achievable]” in a presentation to a client.

Cameron has previously rejected suggestions that he was motivated by the prospect of a huge payout, stating: “My remuneration was partly in the form of a grant of shares. Their value was nowhere near the amount speculated in the press [around £60m].”

He has added: “In my representations to government, I was breaking no codes of conduct and no government rules. The registrar of consultant lobbyists has found that my activities did not fall within the criteria that require registration.”

An Observer investigation this month found that Cameron was in line to profit from an employee benefit trust registered in Jersey that held shares worth at least $30m in 2019. Those shares would have increased in value if the company had successfully floated on the stock exchange.



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