The latest Scottish opinion poll has given Nicola Sturgeon a mid-campaign boost by puting the Scottish National party at 44%, its highest rating since the 2017 election. The Ipsos Mori poll for STV has more grim news for Labour, putting its support at 16%.
The Ipsos poll also found the Conservatives have secured 26% of the vote, consistent with other recent polls, while the Liberal Democrats have failed to capitalise on Scotland’s strong pro-European sentiment, polling at just 11%.
Only six months after the Brexit party won a Scottish seat in the European parliament with 14.8% of the vote, Ipsos found its support in Scotland now too low to be effectively measured: it puts it at under 1%.
The Ipsos poll, one of the few done by random telephone surveys, has a chink of light for Labour and the Lib Dems. It said 23% of the 1,046 voters it polled last week have yet to make up their mind. While 84% of Tory and SNP voters have decided, only 73% of Labour supporters and 66% of Lib Dems were sure which way they would vote.
Even so, it suggests recent polls forecasting another dire election for Scottish Labour are correct.
Yesterday’s YouGov poll for the Times predicted Labour will only retain two of its seven seats, in Edinburgh South and Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill. Others say Labour can only save Edinburgh South, a seat held by the Scottish party’s most vehement critic of Jeremy Corbyn, Ian Murray.
Ipsos asked respondents to spontaneously list the most important topics for them at the election: 72% of Tories and 79% of Lib Dems put Brexit first; 67% of Labour voters prioritised the NHS, followed by Brexit, and 55% of SNP voters put Brexit first, with 46% mentioning independence and 45% the NHS.
It said Sturgeon was the only party leader not to have a negative satisfaction rating, but voters were split 48% to 48% on whether she was doing a good or bad job. Boris Johnson had a net satisfaction rating of -52, with 23% of Tory voters disliking him, while Jeremy Corbyn was -47, with 41% of Labour voters dissatisfied with him.
Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, appears to be less unpopular in Scotland than other UK polls suggest. While 25% of voters had no opinion of her, her net satisfaction rating was the best of the UK leaders at -21%.