When fracking triggered an earthquake near the town of Blackpool on August 26 it not only shook homes but snapped the patience of Mark Menzies. The Conservative MP for Fylde in north-west England, who had endured years of protests and unpopularity by backing the industry, finally called for a ban.
“Hydraulic fracturing is not suitable for the Fylde coast,” he wrote to Kwasi Kwarteng, the energy minister.
Nine weeks later, on the eve of a general election, the government granted his wish. It said a “moratorium” would be imposed on fracking, citing fears of further quakes.
A number of scientists say the UK’s geology makes the country unsuitable for fracking, in which rock is blasted with a mix of water, sand and chemicals at high pressure to release gas. But the industry and protesters believe the moratorium is as much about votes as quakes.
“It’s electioneering,” said one industry insider who declined to be named.
The only active fracking site in the UK is at Preston New Road in Fylde, where work by Cuadrilla, the operator, caused last summer’s 2.9 magnitude tremor. As the country looks ahead to an election on December 12, the Conservatives have an eye on neighbouring constituencies vulnerable to a Labour opposition that has long opposed shale gas extraction.
Many fracking licences have been granted in the Midlands and North of England, where the Tories need to pick up seats if they are to secure a majority in parliament. For example, nearby Blackpool South is a Labour-held Tory target, while neighbouring South Ribble was held by Labour until 2010 and needs just a 7 per cent swing to switch.
Nationally, 35 per cent of the public oppose fracking with 15 per cent in support; the rest do not have an opinion. Robert Hayward, a Tory peer and pollster, said: “There is no question that this [moratorium] could have an impact because it removes a major bone of contention. How many votes it will change is a moot point but it should make campaigning easier for the Conservatives in some seats.”
Andrea Leadsom, Business secretary, added to suspicions that the moratorium was politically motivated in a weekend interview with the BBC. Hours after announcing the ban she affirmed that shale gas remained a “huge opportunity” for the UK as long as it could be extracted safely.
However, senior Tories insisted Boris Johnson, the prime minister, who once denounced anti-frackers as “ludicrous”, had killed the industry. “There is no chance it will restart,” said one party figure, unless it discovered new methods. The person insisted timing of the moratorium was “coincidence”.
The announcement followed a report by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), the regulator, which found that it was not possible to predict the probability or magnitude of earthquakes. It has yet to be published.
Scientists say the conclusion is no surprise. Peter Styles, emeritus professor of applied and environmental geophysics at Keele University, co-authored a review on fracking after an earlier moratorium caused by a 2.3 magnitude quake at another Cuadrilla site in 2011. That report recommended that any tremor above 0.5 should lead to a temporary pause, a condition the industry already said made operation uneconomic.
Now drillers have “not got societal permission”, even if they did come up with enough evidence to satisfy regulators and ministers, said Prof Styles.
“It’s not the [United] States. Geologically we’ve had many more things happen in the UK than in the Permian basin of the US. There are many faults and we don’t know where they all are,” he added.
Stuart Haszeldine of Edinburgh University’s school of geosciences agreed that fracking in the UK was “never going to work”.
“What fracking developers have failed to recognise is that the rocks in the UK are mechanically impossible to access without causing earthquakes,” Mr Haszeldine said. “Measurements taken during many years in rocks of northern and southern England show that the rocks are naturally loaded to breaking point.”
He believes the industry would have to find an alternative technique for fracking to work in the UK.
Cuadrilla, the country’s only active operator, declined to comment. The company has spent £270m on fracking, but has yet to produce gas in commercial quantities.
But UK Onshore Oil and Gas, which represents the industry, said “hydraulic fracturing stimulation is a longstanding technology used around the world” and said it could be used safely.
IGas, which has drilled a test well in Nottinghamshire, said: “The OGA report summary found that susceptibility to seismicity depends strongly on a location’s specific geology with the mere presence of faulting or the parameters of the injection possibly of less importance.”
The industry said gas remained an important part of the UK’s energy mix, heating four in five homes and generating electricity. The country has to imports half its needs.
But there are signs investors are losing patience. Riverstone and Kerogen Capital, private equity houses with stakes in Cuadrilla, reportedly examined a sale this year. Riverstone has 45 per cent of Cuadrilla, while Kerogen has 53 per cent of Australian energy-service company AJ Lucas, which holds almost half of Cuadrilla.
Will Scargill, senior oil and gas analyst for GlobalData, said Conservative politicians who in the early 2010s predicted a shale gas revolution in the UK were misguided. He pointed out that unlike the US, the UK is a densely populated country with restrictive planning laws and the state, rather than individuals, receives royalties from gas.
“You do not have the space, the financing and the private mineral ownership rights that have made it possible for the industry to develop in the US. It was always an uphill battle,” Mr Scargill said.
