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Four roads to October 31


Parliament packed up for a five-week recess last night, amid chaotic scenes in the Commons chamber.

Opposition MPs are furious that Boris Johnson has mandated such an unusually long break in the Commons schedule at a critical moment for the country. But there is nothing they can do about it: the Commons now comes back on October 14, just 17 days before the October 31 Brexit cliff edge when the UK is legally due to leave the EU.

That period will be frantic. Mr Johnson will go to the EU Council on October 17 where he will try to secure a Brexit deal. If he fails, a majority of MPs will insist he must secure an extension to the UK’s EU membership until January 31 — as mandated by the Rebel Alliance’s anti no-deal law passed last week.

How might events play out over that period? There are four possibilities.

The first is that Mr Johnson manages to do a Brexit deal with the EU and gets it through parliament. This can’t be completely excluded.

There has been talk in recent days that he might opt for a Northern Ireland only backstop, in other words placing a regulatory border down the Irish Sea rather than across the island of Ireland. The scope to do this has grown because the DUP are no longer decisive players at Westminster, given that the government has no majority. 

“The Northern Ireland only backstop is the obvious landing ground,” says Mujtaba Rahman of Eurasia Group. “But the fact remains that a deal still has only a slight chance of getting through the Commons.”

The second possibility is that Mr Johnson fails to get a deal and agrees an Article 50 extension that paves the way for a general election.

This is now the most likely outcome. True, it would force the prime minister to eat his words about leaving the EU on October 31 “do or die”. But he can blame Labour and the opposition parties for forcing this delay on him and for procrastinating over Brexit in general.

The third possibility is that the UK somehow drifts into a no-deal Brexit on October 31. There is much speculation that, once Mr Johnson has failed to get a deal with Brussels, he will try to sidestep parliament’s anti no-deal law, perhaps with a challenge in the UK Supreme Court.

But legal challenges aside, it is also clear that the anti no-deal majority is functioning well and consistently defeating the government in the Commons. That majority will have about a week to block a no-deal Brexit after the EU summit — if necessary by toppling the Johnson government in a vote of no confidence. So no deal on October 31 looks very unlikely.

The fourth possibility is that the UK ends up holding a second referendum after October 31. Hardly anyone is talking about this now but some commentators (for example the Evening Standard leader column) believe calls for a second referendum will gain traction. In the Standard’s view, this is because Mr Johnson will realise that holding an election at this stage is a big risk thanks to the resurgence of the Liberal Democrats and Scottish nationalists.

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Further reading

Boris Johnson must face the brutal logic of his choices

“From the Westminster perspective things look truly awful. Cabinet members, including his brother, are resigning. Some of the biggest names in his party have been expelled. MPs have combined both to block him leaving the EU on October 31 and to deny him an election on his terms. In the words of one opponent, we are back to the Olympic Games image of Mr Johnson stuck on a zip line, waving Union flags and waiting for Labour to cut the wire.” (Robert Shrimsley, FT)

Another defeat for Boris Johnson. What next?

(Sebastian Payne, FT)

Bercow begins his long goodbye by inflicting more Tory turmoil

(John Crace, The Guardian)

Jeremy Corbyn’s referendums — which will he choose?

(Karl Pike, The UK in a Changing Europe)

Hard numbers

UK earnings growth speeds up to hit decade high 

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