Attention this week turns to the Federal Reserve, which is expected to announce a further quarter percentage point rate cut on Wednesday, shortly after US growth data likely to show another quarterly slowdown are released.
There are also central bank decisions in Japan, Canada, Brazil and Colombia.
Brexit will continue to dominate UK politics, as the country waits to see how long an extension the EU will grant while Boris Johnson tries to force a general election.
The Central Committee of China’s ruling Communist party begins a four-day meeting on Monday, amid speculation some of the younger generation of leaders may be promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee.
Tech and media types can look forward to the launch of Apple’s TV streaming service on Friday, which rolls out in more than 100 countries and regions.
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations gathers towards the end of the week for a summit in Bangkok, where leaders from China, India, Japan and South Korea are expected to speak over the course of the weekend.
On Wednesday, Boeing chief executive Dennis Muilenburg testifies before Congress about the grounded 737 Max in the wake of two deadly crashes. Mr Muilenburg promised investors last week that Boeing had learnt the lessons of the crisis.
Back in the UK, the first phase of findings from the public inquiry into the Grenfell Tower fire, which killed 71 people in June 2017, are due to be published on Wednesday.
There are also notable farewells this week — Mario Draghi hands over the presidency of the European Central Bank to Christine Lagarde, and both are due to speak at a farewell event in Frankfurt for Mr Draghi on Monday, alongside German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron.
John Bercow steps down as Speaker of Britain’s House of Commons on Thursday. He has been unusually interventionist in the role over the past decade and has become a well-known figure, especially since helping parliament to steer the course of Brexit.
It’s also a busy time for earnings. In the UK financials HSBC, Standard Chartered and Lloyds report, with the final cost of the payment protection insurance mis-selling very much on investors minds. Tech giants Apple, Alphabet and Facebook are among the many big names reporting in the US.
There’s plenty for economy watchers to get their teeth into with this week’s run of US data, with updates on jobs, growth and the manufacturing sector. There are also gross domestic product figures due across Europe.
Brexit
Mr Johnson will dare MPs to vote on Monday for a pre-Christmas election on December 12, allowing him to bring his deal back to the Commons for scrutiny and give parliament until November 6 to approve the enabling legislation.
Under the 2011 Fixed-Term Parliaments Act, Mr Johnson needs to obtain cross-party support and the backing of at least 434 MPs.
Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionists have said that they will use their 10 Westminster votes to defeat the government.
The Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is expected to order his MPs to abstain and other opposition parties have also indicated they will vote against Monday’s motion.
A one-page bill drawn up by the Liberal Democrats for a December 9 election would only require the support of a simple majority of MPs in a vote on Tuesday. The Lib Dems and the Scottish National Party have argued the bill would prevent Mr Johnson rushing his deal through the Commons ahead of an election, as well as remove the threat of a no-deal Brexit.
Central banks
The Fed is widely expected to reduce its benchmark interest rate for the third consecutive time this year on Wednesday, leaving economists to ponder if that will be it for this year. The central bank has notched up 75 basis points of monetary stimulus this year — and to some economists and Fed officials that should be sufficient to accomplish the goal.
But a drumbeat of relatively soft economic data, and fears of a negative market reaction, could make Fed chair Jay Powell and other policymakers wary of indicating that this round of “insurance” cuts is already over.
Most economists expect the Bank of Canada’s to keep rates on hold on Wednesday thanks to a resilient economy. However, some analysts forecast a quarter percentage point rate cut could be on the cards due more turbulent economic conditions ahead.
Brazil is set to deliver a third straight 50 basis-point cut to its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday, lowering borrowing costs to an all-time low of 5 per cent amid below-target inflation.
On the same day Colombia’s central bank is forecast to hold interest rates at 4.25 per cent.
On Thursday, many economists now expect the Bank of Japan to stay its hand, or else to make only a relatively minor adjustment to policy, despite hinting at its last meeting that it might take action this time around.
Background reading
Earnings
UK financials are in the spotlight again this week. HSBC reports on Monday, when updates on a huge cost-cutting drive that threatens up to 10,000 jobs are expected to be announced alongside the results.
Five months of anti-government protests in Hong Kong are also expected to start to bite, as they will at Standard Chartered which reports on Wednesday. Hong Kong is the single-biggest profit centre for the two banks.
Hong Kong accounted for 52 per cent of HSBC’s profit before tax in the first half of this year, while it brought in a third of StanChart’s income in the same period, as per the banks’ financial filings.
Lloyds reports on Thursday with profits expected to take another big hit after the lender last month conceded the cost of compensating customers for mis-sold payment protection insurance was much worse than anticipated, suspending the remainder of its annual share buyback programme.
BP provides an update on Tuesday with Royal Dutch Shell following on Thursday, when investors will be on the lookout for any damage brought by falling oil prices.
Telecoms group BT, British Airways parent IAG, drugmaker GlaxoSmithKline and retailer Next also report this week.
In the US, more than 160 companies on the S&P 500 are scheduled to report results. The list includes tech giants like Apple, Alphabet and Facebook but also a range of companies from consumer names, such as Kraft Heinz, to energy companies such as ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips.
In Europe, Airbus, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank are among those reporting, with the German bank’s earnings expected to shed light on progress in its multibillion-euro restructuring.
Samsung Electronics, the world’s top memory chipmaker, releases detailed figures for the third quarter, after projecting it had beaten profit expectations earlier this month amid signs of a chip cycle recovery.
Economic data
US gross domestic product figures on Wednesday are set to show the economy cooled sharply in the third quarter — growth of 1.6 per cent, down from 2 per cent in the second quarter, is forecast.
Friday’s jobs report is set to show hiring down to 90,000 in October, a fall from 136,000 the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to have edged higher to 3.6 per cent from 3.5 per cent. However, average hourly earnings are also expected to have climbed, rising 0.3 per cent month-on-month and 3 per cent from a year ago.
Economists warn the report could be “messy” as a result of the strike at General Motors and expect this to reverse in November’s report as the carmaker has cut a deal with the union.
Manufacturing data the same day are expected to show the sector contracted for the third consecutive month as uncertainty about the US-China trade war has weighed on global growth and complicated the outlook for American factories.
Third-quarter GDP data are due from France, Italy, Spain, Austria and Belgium, alongside the first estimate for the eurozone, which is forecast to record just 0.1 per cent growth.
