Fashion industry forecasted to contract by up to 30 percent

Fashion industry forecasted to contract by up to 30 percent

A new report by The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Company has detailed
the effects of COVID-19 on the global fashion industry, and the results are
not pretty. The fashion industry is in crisis, and millions of jobs are at
stake, along with the potential for many companies to go bankrupt.

The global fashion industry is projected to contrast by up to 30 percent,
and the personal luxury goods industry is set to contract by up to 40
percent this year. 8 out of 10 listed fashion companies in Europe and North
America are predicted to be in financial distress if lockdowns and store
closures last more than 2 months, leading to bankruptcies over the next 12
to 18 months.

Following lockdown orders, 84 percent of office-based workers have
transitioned to work-from-home, and 93 percent of senior executives have
said their companies have instituted hiring freezes. The cancellation of
orders due to store closures is also leaving garment factory workers in Bangladesh, India and Cambodia out of work.

Fashion could be feeling the effects of an 18 month recession

“The coronavirus crisis has accelerated the wave of consolidation happening
in the fashion industry in a major way,” said Achim Berg, global leader of
the Apparel, Fashion & Luxury Group at McKinsey and Company. “Due to the
interdependence of the industry and the severity of the crisis, we expect
the impact on fashion companies to be long-term in nature. But the crisis
also offers fashion the opportunity to redesign the industry’s value chain
and to focus on the values by which we measure our actions.”

The five key themes found in the study include survival instincts, discount
mindset, digital escalation, Darwinian shakeout, and innovative imperative.
Recovery from the pandemic will coincide with this current recession that
will be ongoing and brands will have to ramp up resilience planning and
will have to stabilize their core business before they focus on growth.
Deep discounting will also bog down retailers for the rest of 2020 as
shoppers will be incredibly cash strapped. Companies will also have to ramp
up their digital channels as consumers will demand more online shopping as
they try and stay safe in their homes. In regards to “Darwinian shakeout”,
the crisis will accelerate the decline of companies that were already
struggling before the pandemic, leading to massive waves of consolidation,
M&A activity and insolvencies. Companies left standing will have to get
more innovative with their tools and strategies to future-proof their
business models.

While the 2.5 trillion dollar fashion industry will weather the storm and
rebound from the economic downturn, the storm will be a rough one. The
industry will be a whole different animal when this is over.

photo: Pexels


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