Politics

European election polls 2019: Could Nigel Farage's Brexit Party WIN EU elections?


Brexit has now been postponed until October 31, meaning the UK may well have to elect new Members of the European Parliament next month. A number of parties have put themselves forward for the chance to represent the UK, among them Change UK and Eurosceptics the Brexit Party. Change UK is the new party formed by Independent Group MPs and was approved by the Electoral Commission on April 16. The Brexit Party is Nigel Farage’s brainchild which is currently garnering major support.

Could the Brexit Party win the European elections?

Nigel Farage launched the Brexit Party last week with Jacob Rhys Mogg’s sister Annunziata.

The party’s policy is aligned with UKIP according to Nigel Farage but has a “vast” difference in personnel.

They have a total of 12 MEPs in the European Parliament and are looking to attract “across the board” support from other parties including the Conservatives and Labour.

Backers have said “thousands” of Tory members could defect to their ranks.

The party surged ahead in the polls recently, nipping the heels of the Conservatives.

One YouGov survey has the party on 15 percent of the vote, just behind the Conservatives on 16 percent.

Labour is steaming ahead, however, with 24 percent of the vote.

One senior pollster has predicted the Brexit Party could manage a last-minute victory.

YouGov Political Research Manager Chris Curtis said Farage’s party could buck the trend of poor results for newly established parties.

Writing in The Guardian, he said having 15 percent of the vote bodes well for Farage, who managed to do well in the polls before the party was even official.

He said: “While there are more than five weeks of campaigning to go, I certainly wouldn’t bet against him.”

He said: “Firstly, the Brexit party has already achieved a 15 per cent vote share as a force that is still fairly unknown, with the fieldwork for this poll taking place before the party officially launched last Friday.’

Mr Curtis added: “Meanwhile Ukip, which is currently dividing the vote share, has not only lost its main salesman but now finds itself being openly attached by him.

“It may be holding 14 per cent of the vote share in our European Parliament poll, but it is easy to see how much of this could shift away once the campaign gets going.”

Mr Farage claimed a surprise victory in the 2014 EU Parliamentary elections when he led Ukip to victory.



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