Europe’s leaders will this week be warned that they cannot wield a veto over the EU’s top appointments, as diplomats push to agree the union’s biggest jobs reshuffle in one package next month.
The crucial process to pick presidents for the European Commission, European Council and European Central Bank will be informally discussed by EU leaders on Thursday at a summit in the Romanian city of Sibiu.
It is unprecedented for the EU to have such a clutch of senior vacancies. Officials involved in talks fear the process could become bogged down unless it is clear that majority voting could be used to push decisions through.
Haggling over jobs will be intense and potentially divisive, with member states and the parliament aware that the outcome could define the next five years of the European project. Diplomats say the races remain wide open.
Important appointments used to be decided unanimously but officials fear this will be impossible to engineer.
“If necessary we will use [majority] voting, there is no taboo,” said one senior EU official. “There is no point of somebody thinking they can just block a candidate, or hold the process hostage. That will not work.”
Donald Tusk, whose term as European Council president ends in November, is expected to remind leaders that he was appointed over the objections of Poland while Jean-Claude Juncker was picked as commission president in spite of reservations from Britain.
At the weekend Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, called for “a generational change” at the top of the EU, alongside a revamp of the bloc’s treaties.
The threat to rely on majority votes for appointments is viewed as a way to try to drive a decision at a summit in June, where at least the top three posts would be agreed in a single package rather than staggered through the summer. The argument is that the prospect of a rapid deal could draw out candidates who might otherwise hold back because they expect a messy, drawn-out process.
Some ambassadors in Brussels remain sceptical that the jobs can be agreed at a single summit. “It will never be done in one go,” said one.
Diplomats said Mr Tusk also plans to try to drive the appointments process by inviting EU leaders to a dinner on May 28, two days after voting ends for the next European Parliament, to take stock of the outcome and set out a process to pick candidates.
This would in effect limit the time available to the parliament’s political leaders to agree their own so-called Spitzenkandidat for commission president and build a coalition of MEPs in favour.
“Manfred Weber has one day after the results,” said one senior EU diplomat, referring to the centre-right candidate who is expected to emerge from the elections with the biggest group of MEPs.
The EU treaty requires that the European Council — made up of member states’ heads of government — take account of the European elections when nominating a commission president, who then seeks majority approval from parliament.
But many heads of government object to the idea that the lead election candidate should have an automatic right to be nominated. Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has particularly strong objections.
Even some champions of the concept fear it may not have as decisive an impact as in 2014, when the parliament’s largest factions quickly swung behind Mr Juncker’s appointment, giving him enough MEPs to command a majority.
“This time there are more players,” said one senior parliament figure. “There will have to be a bigger coalition. The conditions may not be right. I don’t think we will close it in 48 hours like last time.”
Names in the frame
Manfred
Weber
Manfred Weber is the lead candidate for the centre-right EPP — expected to be the largest group in parliament. He is the frontrunner among the Spitzenkandidaten. EU leaders may balk at the German MEPs lack of government experience. Other parties may also refuse a coalition that extends the EPP’s 15 year domination of the Commission.
Frans
Timmermans
Frans Timmermans is the centre-left Spitzenkandidat. The former Dutch foreign minister wants to build a progressive majority in favour of his presidency. But the numbers are a stretch. He will also struggle to convince Poland, Hungary and other countries he has clashed with over rule of law as Commission vice-president since 2014.
Michel
Barnier
Michel Barnier is the Brexit negotiator and perennial Commission contender. The former foreign French minister is hoping to emerge as a compromise candidate for EPP, who can muster broad support of EU leaders and the Parliament. Some leaders worry his agenda is too French.
Margrethe
Vestager
Margrethe Vestager is part of a team spearheading the Liberal election campaign and tipped as the Commission’s first female president. Earned respect as a tough competition commissioner. But her independence in decision making could give Paris and Berlin pause. She may also find it hard to win the backing of Denmark — her home country — her party and the European Parliament.
Mark
Rutte
The Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte denies any interest in a job at the Commission or Council; few in Brussels believe him. He is a seasoned coalition builder and one of the most experienced European leaders. But his outspoken views on budget discipline and rule of law make him a divisive figure.
Angela
Merkel
The speculation about German chancellor Angela Merkel making a move to Brussels fails to abate, in spite of Ms Merkel’s strong denials. Her move — if she were to express interest — would probably only come in the final days or hours before a decision.
Dalia
Grybauskaite
Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaite has been mentioned by some leaders as a potential Council president. She has advantages as a woman from central and eastern Europe with expertise in EU money matters from her time as a budget Commissioner. Some diplomats see the karate black belt as being too abrasive and anti-Russian to win support.
Christine
Lagarde
Christine Lagarde, the head of the IMF, has long been the subject of speculation. She has a rare mix of assets; a female candidate of the centre-right who is French but in favour with Berlin. She has denied interest in a new role and winning the backing of Emmanuel Macron may be difficult.
Dark
Horse
Brussels has long opted for outsiders. Possible contenders include sitting premiers such as Charles Michel of Belgium and Denmark’s Lars-Lokke Rasmussen, who are both liberals; Andrej Plenkovic, the centre-right prime minister of Croatia; and António Costa, Portugal’s centre-left leader.
