European leaders are pressing British MPs to vote for Boris Johnson’s EU withdrawal deal by warning they want to avoid another Brexit extension — but they have pointedly declined to rule out a further delay.
The reluctance to explicitly reject an extension suggests one would be granted, reflecting how highly the bloc prioritises avoiding blame for a damaging no-deal Brexit, diplomats said.
Mr Johnson spent Friday intensifying his charm offensive to convince MPs to back his deal in the crucial House of Commons vote on Saturday. As of Friday afternoon, it appeared the prime minister was making progress but the outcome is still thought to be too close to call.
His hopes were dealt a serious blow on Thursday when Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party came out against the agreement but some former Conservative rebels and opposition Labour MPs said they would back the deal.
The EU leaders’ statements reflect the strong shared interest EU27 countries have with the Johnson government in persuading the UK parliament to approve the deal.
French president Emmanuel Macron told reporters on Friday that he thought Britain’s October 31 date to exit the EU “should stand”.
“I don’t think a new extension should be granted,” he said. “Now we should finish these negotiations, move on to negotiations about the future relationship and be able to finish with this.”
Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s prime minister, warned that no British MP “should make the assumption that there would be unanimity for an extension”.
While the statements are likely to be used by Mr Johnson’s allies to present the British parliamentary vote as a choice between the deal and no-deal, officials say the more telling point is that neither Mr Macron nor Mr Vardakar said they would veto an extension.
At Brexit talks at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday night, leaders fell behind the line of Donald Tusk, European Council president, and Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, that the bloc would have a duty to accept a British extension request, diplomats said.
Officials instead see statements opposing an extension from high-profile figures including Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president, as part of an effort to push British MPs into voting for Mr Johnson’s agreement by making them fear no-deal will inevitably result if they do not.
“There is a lot of [EU27] nervousness about what happens if he loses,” said one diplomat. “There is a very strong sense of wanting to be supportive of the deal because the arithmetic is so fraught. But there is no question the EU will accept an extension.”
Nearly all of the 287 Tory MPs are expected to back the deal, including most of the 28 hardline Eurosceptics dubbed the Spartans.
However, some may refuse to back the deal unless the 10 DUP MPs endorse it. The Northern Irish party has pledged to vote down the deal because it includes a new customs border inside the UK between the region and mainland Britain.
They also object to the section that allows the Northern Ireland assembly to opt out of the proposed customs and regulatory system through a simple majority vote.
Without the DUP, Mr Johnson will need to win over the 23 independent Conservatives — former Tory MPs who have had the party whip removed. The majority are expected to support the prime minister.
He will also need to woo some opposition Labour MPs — a daunting prospect with party leader Jeremy Corbyn pledging to oppose the deal.
The number of rebel Labour MPs talking to Downing Street about supporting Mr Johnson’s deal has been in single figures and they are not all certain to back the agreement.
In a last-minute bid to secure the backing of Tory Eurosceptics, the government published legal advice on Friday morning which sets out that there are “no grounds” to believe the UK will be trapped in the new mechanism that has replaced the Irish backstop.
The advice, which has been endorsed by Geoffrey Cox, the attorney-general, states that the EU does not “possess a veto over the right of members of the NI assembly to withhold consent to the continued applications of those provisions”.
Sir Oliver Letwin, a former Tory MP, has tabled an amendment to Saturday’s motion that would require Mr Johnson to request a Brexit extension even if his deal passes.
The amendment, which is designed to stop a no-deal Brexit, would withhold MPs’ formal approval for the deal until all the legislation needed to implement it passes through parliament.
The government hopes to pass the withdrawal bill by the end of next week, but some MPs fear this could take longer than the October 31 deadline and result in the UK still leaving the EU without a deal. Sir Oliver said he does not want to “let the government off the hook”.
