When the former steel town of Redcar on Britain’s north-east coast voted Conservative in the December general election, it was irresistible not to headline the analysis of Labour’s collapse in its heartlands “from Redcar to Bluecar”. But it turns out that the constituency is one of the most volatile in the UK. It has, over the course of recent, frequent general elections, been held by the all three mainstream political parties. It went from Redcar to Yellowcar in 2010, when it fell to the Liberal Democrats, then to Redcar again in 2015 and 2017, and, finally, to Bluecar in 2019.
The seat is emblematic of a shake-up in traditional allegiances that has so far proved a threat to Labour but an opportunity for the Tories, who made unprecedented inroads into traditionally Labour areas last month.
In this detailed analysis of disruptions to the political landscape since 2010, the team of academics behind the British Election Study explores the extent to which any prediction about the next few years will be as rash as during the frequent elections held in the UK at the end of the last decade.
The book, rich in the sort of data crunching that has given the BES a central role in political research since the 1960s, focuses on five “electoral shocks” that radiated across British politics and changed outcomes: the economic crisis, Brexit, higher immigration after EU enlargement in 2004, the formation of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition and the 2014 Scottish independence referendum.
These have played out in different ways, as the authors methodically explain. Some shocks damage the image of a party either by lowering its reputation for competence (the economic crisis, immigration) or by perturbing its supporters (an entire chapter is devoted to the collapse of the Lib Dems after the coalition). The two referendums played havoc with politics in a different way, cutting across left-right divisions.
The uncertainty then created huge potential for vote-switching: 60 per cent of voters chose different parties at least once over the three elections previous to December’s. These changes offered a chance for both the Tories and the Scottish Nationalists to capitalise, which they have proved eager to do, both being well placed to pick a side in the new cleavages created by the referendums. These two parties now dominate either side of the border.
With admirable clarity, the authors explain complex findings about how such dramatic upheavals happened. Some of their conclusions are paradoxical, or a challenge to the views of less scientifically-minded political observers — all who offer an opinion on politics should be encouraged to pick up this book, although the general reader may feel the level of detail is excessive.
One of these counter-intuitive observations is that the longer-term breakdown of traditional party loyalties (“partisan dealignment” in academic-speak) promotes a volatility that can end up benefiting the two main UK parties. When more votes are up for grabs, an unprecedented level of switching can, in the absence of other viable options and contingent on canny political strategy, be the path to power for one of the big parties. This explains the space in this volume devoted to Lib Dem woes: the party’s doldrums have affected election outcomes ever since.
So what next? The longer-term impact of the Brexit shock, the authors warn, is yet to be seen. And future shocks are, of their very nature, unknown unknowns.
Meanwhile, “the gains for the main parties are by no means secure”, it seems. Here’s a warning for Prime Minister Boris Johnson: “Declining party identification and high levels of voter volatility mean that if parties change their positions, then different voters will vote for them.” What is more, “newly recruited voters are even less loyal than the average”.
But there is another note of caution, this time for Labour politicians who think their supporters will flock back next time after experimenting with a Tory vote in 2019: “Having voted for a party it is harder to dislike that party.”
Or as a friend put it, “It felt a bit weird, but I could do it again now.” The people of Redcar can choose any colour they want.
Miranda Green is the FT’s deputy opinion editor
Electoral Shocks: the Volatile Voter in a Turbulent World, by Edward Fieldhouse, Jane Green and others, OUP, £70, 282pp
