Politics

Election 2019 polls latest: Will there be a hung parliament? Hung Parliament meaning


Voters will head to polling stations tomorrow between 7am and 10pm to cast their ballots and elect a chosen representative for their constituency. Throughout the election polls have indicated the Conservatives are ahead, however, most polls indicated they would fail to secure a majority. But what do the latest polls reveal and what are the chances there will be a hung parliament?

Parliament is made up of a total of 650 seats across England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Respectively there are 533 seats in England, 40 seats in Wales, 59 seats in Scotland and 18 seats in Northern Ireland.

To win an outright majority, a political party must secure 51 percent of seats which equates to 326 seats – a feat only possible for the Conservative Party and Labour Party.

However, sometimes parties can win fewer seats, depending on how other parties perform, because the Speaker of the House of Commons and their three deputies do not vote except in rare circumstances.

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When no overall majority is reached, the Prime Minister in power before the general election was called stays in power and is given the first chance to create a new Government.

For the December 2019 election, this would mean Boris Johnson would remain as the PM and would have the choice to create a new government.

He would be able to proceed in one of three ways:

Negotiate with another party or parties to build a coalition.

Try and govern with a minority of Members of Parliament.

Resign, usually after failing to negotiate a coalition, and recommend that the leader of the largest opposition party be invited to form a government – who may decide to form a coalition or govern as a minority government.

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The most recent poll from Opinium was published on Wednesday, December 11.

The results of the poll showed Conservative in the lead in terms of voting intention with 45 percent.

In second place was the Labour Party with 33 percent, while the Liberal Democrats polled in third place with 12 percent.

The Scottish National Party (SNP) was next with four percent, followed by Brexit Party and the Green Party each with two percent.

This indicates it is possible there will be a hung parliament, given that if 45 percent of voters in England, Wales and Scotland (where this poll surveyed) voted Conservative, Boris Johnson would secure 284.4 seats, 41.6 less than required for an overall majority.

The latest YouGov MRP poll, dubbed the “mystic Meg” poll, however tells a different story.

The MRP poll is considered to be the most accurate predictor of an election’s outcome and was the only poll to forecast a hung parliament in 2017 when all other polls predicted Theresa May winning a majority.

The MRP poll published on Tuesday, used data from around 100,000 people about their voting intentions for the election and was collected over a period of seven days.

Compared to regular polls, the MRP poll uses the poll data from around 50,000 people and the preceding seven days to estimate a model relating interview date, constituency, voter demographics, past voting behaviour, and other respondent profile variables to their current voting intentions.

The results were as follows:

  • Conservative: 339 seats – 43 percent voting intention
  • Labour: 231 seats – 34 percent voting intention
  • Liberal Democrats: 15 seats – 12 percent voting intention
  • SNP: 41 seats – three percent voting intention
  • Green: one seat – three percent voting intention
  • Brexit Party: no seats – three percent voting intention
  • Plaid Cymru: four seats – zero percent voting intention
  • Other: one seat – two percent voting intention



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