The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said tearing Scotland out of the UK would lead to lower spending north of the Border than is planned by Boris Johnson. Its impartial analysis of the SNP manifesto came as Ms Sturgeon tried to “outline the danger of further Tory austerity from Westminster”, a key plank of her election strategy. The First Minister has put a second independence referendum at the “heart” of the SNP’s General Election campaign and wants to hold a vote next year.
But the IFS warned that the party’s uncosted pledges would mean higher spending cuts or larger tax hikes than would previously be required under independence.
David Phillips, IFS associate director, said the Conservative’s plans would see spending grow by a “modest” 1.8 per cent per year over the next parliament.
This is slightly ahead of forecast economic growth but higher than under the SNP manifesto for separation. The economist said: “Therefore, in the short term at least, independence would likely necessitate more, not less, austerity.”
The IFS last week warned that both Tory and Labour spending plans are “not credible”.
Mr Phillips said the SNP manifesto “isn’t really about a plan of action for five years of governing the UK” but was instead “about starting the process of leaving the UK in the next year”.
Unveiling her manifesto last week, Ms Sturgeon argued she could force a minority Labour government into spending billions of pounds more. As well as calling for increased NHS spending, the SNP wants an end to the two-child cap on tax credits, the scrapping of the so-called bedroom tax and an increase in the living wage.
Unlike Labour, the Tories and Liberal Democrats, Mr Phillips said, the SNP had not costed any of its proposals. But speaking on the campaign trail in Midlothian, Ms Sturgeon said: “I don’t accept that analysis. I’ve got great respect for the IFS, but I think in a number of ways it’s a flawed analysis.
“Firstly I think it raises questions about trying to apply a Westminster manifesto in an independence context. Not because we don’t want to do these things, but of course in an independent Scotland we have a range of levers at our disposal that we don’t have now.”
