It was when cabinet ministers were asked to join a conference call on Monday evening with Mark Sedwill, Britain’s top civil servant, that they knew the coronavirus crisis was taking a dark new turn. “It’s never good news when you get a call like that,” said one minister.
Sir Mark’s confirmation that UK prime Minister Boris Johnson had gone into intensive care meant that the government, already struggling to keep up with the virulent spread of the disease, now had to adapt to a situation where its leader was himself stricken by the virus.
Mr Johnson’s instruction that Dominic Raab, foreign secretary, should deputise for him “as necessary” put the spotlight on Britain’s notoriously opaque constitutional arrangements and how its government should function in an emergency.
Two British prime ministers in the postwar era have temporarily handed over the reins to other ministers due to ill health: Anthony Eden and Harold Macmillan.
Mr Raab, designated first secretary of state by Mr Johnson in July last year, was already viewed as the prime minister’s de facto deputy, but his authority in this crisis is rooted in the personal endorsement given to him by the ailing premier from London’s St Thomas’ hospital.
Although Mr Raab is seen by some in the Conservative party as a wooden media performer whose uncompromising views on Brexit have alienated some colleagues, most ministers believe he can hold down the job of de facto premier for weeks, if necessary.
“Whatever you think of the prime minister’s politics, he has a big mandate and is very popular as a person with voters,” said one minister. “Dominic’s position is strong, based on the sympathy people have for Boris.”
The idea that rivals for the top job should use the moment of Mr Johnson’s hospitalisation to jockey for position is seen as highly unlikely by cabinet ministers, especially because such manoeuvring in a national crisis would be widely condemned. “People are dying,” said one Tory official.
Catherine Haddon, senior fellow at the Institute for Government think-tank, said it was “entirely possible for government business to continue without the PM present”.
“Constitutionally it is quite straightforward: we have a prime minister, he remains prime minister, but others can deputise for him,” she said. “His powers are informal and political: the PM is the figurehead at the top of government but they also run the machine.”
Mr Raab has already spoken with cabinet ministers, promising a full discussion and collective verdict on the next big decision for the government: the expected decision to continue with lockdown measures when they come up for review over the Easter weekend.
The government’s Covid-19 committee, which convenes daily at 9.15am, is directing the government response. In Mr Johnson’s absence, Mr Raab will thrash out operational details with Rishi Sunak, chancellor, Matt Hancock, health secretary, and Michael Gove, cabinet office minister.
Tensions already exist in the “war cabinet” between Mr Hancock and Mr Gove over the government’s response to the escalating crisis. Mr Gove, who has long coveted the top job, is likely to eye Mr Raab enviously.
Meanwhile, the Treasury, anxious about the economic costs of a prolonged lockdown, and the Department of Health, desperate to protect the NHS from a surge in cases, have also clashed, although ministers say relations between Mr Sunak and Mr Hancock remain cordial.
Downing Street said on Tuesday that Buckingham Palace had agreed to suspend the weekly audience of the Queen and prime minister during Mr Johnson’s spell in hospital, meaning that Mr Raab will not be involved in the intimate dialogue between monarch and premier.
Nor will Mr Raab have the power to hire or fire ministers. “The prime minister always remains the prime minister,” Mr Gove told the BBC on Tuesday.
The first secretary would, however, have the power to authorise military action to defend Britain; the cabinet and the national security council, which Mr Raab will chair in Mr Johnson’s absence, provide the framework for such action.
Letters from Mr Johnson to the commanders of submarines carrying Britain’s nuclear deterrent would remain operative for as long as he remained prime minister.
If Mr Raab also succumbed to the virus or became otherwise incapacitated, Downing Street said the baton would pass to Mr Sunak, next in the official cabinet pecking order. Priti Patel, home secretary, would be the next in line followed by Mr Gove.
Tory grandees say that the transfer of authority to Mr Raab was “relatively straightforward”, so long as it was assumed that Mr Johnson would be coming back to Number 10 in a short period of time.
One senior Tory MP suggested that Mr Raab would be more likely to act cautiously when it came to easing the lockdown than Mr Johnson. “It’s harder when you are acting on behalf of the PM,” the MP said.
Ms Haddon said: “If the cabinet rallied together and told Raab ‘we don’t feel you’re the right person for this moment’ then it becomes very difficult for him and someone else could take his place. But his power flows from Johnson, so ministers would in effect be at odds with the PM.”
