Health

Daily toll of people with Covid symptoms falls below 1,000 for first time in a YEAR


COVID cases are the lowest they have been since the pandemic started, data suggests.

Around 971 people are catching symptomatic disease every day, according to King’s College London researchers.

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Less than 1,000 people are catching symptomatic disease every day. The figure hasn't been this low since the team started keeping records (June), and compares to the last record low in August (1,292)

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Less than 1,000 people are catching symptomatic disease every day. The figure hasn’t been this low since the team started keeping records (June), and compares to the last record low in August (1,292)

It’s lower than in the summer of last year before the second wave began.

For comparison, daily coronavirus cases reached a record low of 1,300 in August.

Meanwhile, around 757 people are getting symptomatic Covid each day in England compared to 1,071 at the end of August.

And in London the figure is a record low of 101 – more than 100 times lower than in mid-January when it was almost 11,000.

The data comes from the ZOE Symptom Study app, which has been tracking the outbreak since March 2020 using data from millions of people.

Although it only started giving daily case figures in June, it may be assumed cases were higher from March to May as Britain went into the first lockdown.

It doesn’t include cases of asymptomatic disease, thought to account for around one in three cases.

Lead scientist Prof Tim Spector commented: “ZOE’s data continues to suggest that the UK is entering an endemic phase as COVID has stabilised at very low levels, similar to rates seen last summer.”

He warned that because cases were so low, estimates are less reliable.

“But reassuringly the ZOE figures follow the trends seen in official confirmed cases”, Prof Spector said.

The study estimated the R rate in the UK was 1, which puts it at a critical point.

Anything over 1 could threaten the downward trend of cases.

Meanwhile data from Public Health England reveals confirmed cases in England are still coming down across each region.

Its weekly report published today reveals a miniscule 11.7 people per 100,000 in the South West were diagnosed with Covid last week.

The infection rate was highest in Yorkshire, at 47. 

At a more local level, two-thirds of areas have seen case numbers come down.

Where cases are highest (in dark red) according to the Zoe Symptom Study app

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Where cases are highest (in dark red) according to the Zoe Symptom Study app
Where cases are highest (in dark red) according to Public Health England

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Where cases are highest (in dark red) according to Public Health England
Cases in each age group per 100,000 since March, according to testing data from Public Health England. Testing was not ramped up until the summer of 2020

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Cases in each age group per 100,000 since March, according to testing data from Public Health England. Testing was not ramped up until the summer of 2020

Even in areas with an increase, there were only a few more cases, with zero infection rates higher than 84 per 100,000 (in Bolton, Manchester).

Case numbers have come down in every age group other than young children, which may be related to a slight increase in school Covid outbreaks.

And 0.8 per cent of people who got a swab test last week had a positive result compared to 18.1 per cent in the January peak. 

The data provides further evidence that Covid is in retreat in Britain and could soon be stamped out – thanks to vaccines.

Almost 35 million people have had at least one dose of a Covid jab so far, with the NHS currently making its way through those in their 40s.

 

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PHE said today that almost seven in ten people in England have antibodies against Covid. 

With so many people protected against reinfection, it bodes well for a route to normality.

There will still be some people who catch Covid despite having a vaccine, as the ZOE app data reveals.

But Prof Spector said today the illness is much more mild.

Urging people to log their symptoms with the app to further research, he said: “With most adults now vaccinated in the UK, we’re seeing a milder form of COVID emerge with less than one third of people experiencing classic symptoms in the first week of the disease. 

“Even if people are vaccinated, they should be aware there are more than 20 symptoms of Covid.”

He said the risk of someone who has had one vaccine dose catching Covid is one in 97,000 people, and for someone with both doses it’s one in 167,000.

The risk is greater for those waiting for their jab, at one in 46,000.

A total of 31 ZOE app users said they had caught coronavirus after two doses of the vaccine, and 87 who had an infection after one dose. 

Your odds of getting Covid tomorrow revealed by Prof Tim Spector





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