Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party is gearing up to fight a general election after its stunning victory in last month’s European Parliament polls.
John Longworth, newly elected MEP for Yorkshire and Humber, and former director-general of the British Chambers of Commerce, has been put in charge of drawing up a manifesto to shape a post-Brexit future for Britain, reports the Daily Express.
Since it was launched by Farage on 12 April, the “party has redefined British politics and hopes to keep up that momentum”, says the newspaper.
But does Farage really stand a chance of becoming prime minister?
In the lead-up to the European elections on 23 May, he claimed that more than 100,000 people had signed up to support his new party.
“Punters are flocking to campaign rallies each day – some early in the mornings on weekdays – and are giving Farage a celebrity welcome wherever he goes,” reported PoliticsHome.
The Brexit Party made good on the polls and dominated the Euro elections, winning 32% of the vote and 29 seats in the European Parliament, the largest number of any British party.
Soon after, Farage promised to field 650 candidates to stand for Westminster office in the next general election if the country does not leave the European Union by 31 October.
Bookmakers shortened their odds on Farage becoming PM to 50/1, better than some of the Tory MPs vying to replace Theresa May.
“One thing is for sure,” says PoliticsHome. “If the deadlock over the EU continues at Westminster, the Brexit Party will continue to prosper… Holding the balance of power in the event of a snap election would be a dream for Farage and an unthinkable prospect a matter of months ago.”
But Andrew Russell, professor of politics at Liverpool University, told The Independent: “European elections are set up for Brexit Party success. The system of voting and the large regions suit them, and they were able to capitalise on the lacklustre campaigns of the main parties.
“European elections are an opportunity for people to use their votes as a protest in a way that doesn’t necessarily translate into Westminster seats.”
Russell pointed to UKIP’s success in the 2014 European polls, when it won 27.5% of the vote. In the general election of 2015, it won only 12.6% of the vote, and only one seat.
“Mr Farage himself fell short in South Thanet in the 2015 election, his seventh unsuccessful attempt to win a seat in Westminster,” notes the newspaper.
Yet, the Brexit Party surged into first place in an Observer poll last week. Its support increased by two points to 26% in the Opinium survey, published on 1 June, with Labour on 22%, the Tories on 17% and the Lib Dems on 16%.
“According to a seat predictor by the Electoral Calculus website, the result would leave Farage 20 seats short of a majority, with 306 MPs. The Conservatives would be reduced to 26 MPs, suggesting they could be the minor party in a coalition with Farage,” says the newspaper.
But the party was put to the test in real life last week at the Peterborough by-election and failed to beat Labour, showing that “in a first-past-the-post system, it is going to have to fight tooth and nail for every seat”, says The Daily Telegraph’s Asa Bennett.
As Bennett asks, if it can’t break through in a “leave-leaning seat that has remained very partial to the Brexit Party message, where on Earth can the Brexit Party win?”
Channel 4’s FactCheck notes that the “political landscape is changing so quickly that only a very brave pundit would call the result of the next general election with too much confidence”.
But it adds: “Previous experience suggests that Mr Farage should not be measuring the curtains for No. 10 Downing Street yet.”
