Health

Coronavirus: second death in China after Sars-like outbreak


A second person has died from pneumonia in the central Chinese city of Wuhan, fuelling concerns about an outbreak of a previously unknown virus that has spread to Japan and Thailand.

The 69-year-old man was admitted to hospital with abnormal renal function and severe damage to multiple organs, and died on 15 January, the Wuhan municipal health commission announced.

Japan and Thailand both reported new cases of the mystery strain of coronavirus virus this week and experts say it might spread further as a result of the Chinese lunar new year, which sees millions of people travel across the country.

At least 41 people have been diagnosed with pneumonia linked to the new virus, prompting authorities in Hong Kong to step up detection measures, including temperature checkpoints for inbound travellers.

Preliminary lab tests cited by state media showed the pathogen could be from a new type of coronavirus, a large family of viruses that can cause infections ranging from the common cold to deadly severe acute respiratory syndrome (Sars).

Meanwhile WHO disease-modelling experts based at Imperial College, London, said that far more people may have been infected than has so far been assumed and they warn human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out.

Prof Neil Ferguson and colleagues, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial, calculate that the number of cases in Wuhan may be more than 1700. “It is likely that the Wuhan outbreak of a novel coronavirus has caused substantially more cases of moderate or severe respiratory illness than currently reported,” they say in a report.

It urges that all hospitalised cases of pneumonia or severe respiratory disease in the Wuhan area and other well-connected Chinese cities should be investigated.

They caution that because of the unknown factors in their estimates, the case numbers could be anywhere from 190 to over 4000. But in a tweet, they say that “the magnitude of these numbers suggests that substantial human to human transmission cannot be ruled out. Heightened surveillance, prompt information sharing and enhanced preparedness are recommended.”

Their calculation is based on the two people in Thailand and one in Japan who were diagnosed with the virus. Based on flight and population data, said Ferguson, “there is only a 1 in 574 chance that a person infected in Wuhan would travel overseas before they sought medical care. This implies there might have been over 1700 (3 x 574) cases in Wuhan so far.”

On Thursday Japan confirmed a man in his 30s had been infected with the virus, and a Chinese woman was quarantined in Thailand. The World Health Organization (WHO) has warned a wider outbreak is possible.

On Friday, Thailand confirmed a second case. A 74-year-old Chinese woman from Wuhan had been quarantined since her arrival on Monday and was found to be infected with the newly identified coronavirus, said Sukhum Karnchanapimai, permanent secretary of the Public Health Ministry.

Sukhum also urged Thais to remain calm, saying that there was no outbreak in the country.

The Wuhan health commission said late on Thursday that 12 people had recovered and been discharged from hospital but five others were in serious condition. It also said no human-to-human transmission had been confirmed but the possibility “cannot be excluded”.

Another WHO doctor said it would not be surprising if there was “some limited human-to-human transmission, especially among families who have close contact with one another”.

It is not surprising that we are starting to hear of more cases in other countries and a range of severity from asymptomatic, to mild and severe illness,” said infectious disease expert and director of Wellcome Dr Jeremy Farrar.

“It is possible that the often mild symptoms from this coronavirus may be masking the true numbers of people who have been infected, or the extent of person-to-person transmission. It is probable that we are looking at patients being affected over a number of days from multiple animal sources and with some degree of human-to-human transmission.

The first confirmed fatality from the virus was a 61-year-old man in Wuhan who died of pneumonia after testing positive.

Memories remain fresh in Asia of a 2002-03 outbreak of Sars, which emerged in China and killed nearly 800 people around the world.

With Reuters and Agence France-Presse



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