Health

Coronavirus fits Disease X pandemic category that could kill 80 million, WHO warns


THE deadly new coronavirus fits the so-called Disease X category, a World Health Organisation (WHO) expert has warned.

Scientists previously warned that an outbreak of an as-yet unknown infectious disease could wipe out 80 million and cause a deadly pandemic.

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 The deadly new coronavirus, Covid-19, has killed more than 2,600 people and infected almost 80,000

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The deadly new coronavirus, Covid-19, has killed more than 2,600 people and infected almost 80,000
 Workers wearing protective gears prepare to spray disinfectant as a precaution against the coronavirus at a market in Seoul

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Workers wearing protective gears prepare to spray disinfectant as a precaution against the coronavirus at a market in SeoulCredit: AP:Associated Press

And now experts fear that the new Covid-19 virus, which has already killed 2,620 people, is shaping up to fit that profile.

The virus has spread well beyond China’s tightly-restricted borders, infecting hundreds in South Korea and Japan, more than 150 in Italy, and several more across the globe.

Unlike SARS, the coronavirus replicates at high concentrations in the nose and throat, and appears capable of spreading to those who show zero or mild symptoms.

Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, and a member of the WHO’s emergency committee, said this virus was becoming the first of its kind to fit the “Disease X” category.

Writing in the journal Cell, she said: “Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category.”

Killer illness

Around 1 in 7 patients with the new coronavirus develop pneumonia and breathing difficulties from the virus.

A total of five per cent of patients who develop the coronavirus will have critical illness, including respiratory failure, septic shock and multi-organ failure.

The WHO, meanwhile, has warned the window of opportunity to stem the deadly outbreak is “narrowing”.

WHO head Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “Although the total number of cases outside China remains relatively small, we are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link, such as travel history to China or contact with a confirmed case.”

We are concerned about the number of cases with no clear epidemiological link

Tedros Adhanom GhebreyesusHead of the World Health Organisation

In a paper for the American Medical Association, doctors said: “Unlike SARS, Covid-19 infection has a broader spectrum of severity ranging from asymptomatic to mildly symptomatic to severe illness that requires mechanical ventilation.

“Clinical progression of the illness appears similar to SARS: patients developed pneumonia around the end of the first week to the beginning of the second week of illness.”

Prof David Heymann, from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said: “Terms such as pandemic are distracting – what is necessary is to understand the current situation in each country.

“Outbreaks must be stopped if possible, and if there is community spread also, community mitigation such as social distancing should be considered along the lines of pandemic preparedness plans for influenza that countries may decide to roll out.

“It is for WHO to determine when the outbreaks should be called a pandemic and they will do this based on information from many different sources.”

 This graphic from a report last year shows global examples of emerging and re-emerging diseases

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This graphic from a report last year shows global examples of emerging and re-emerging diseases

Before this strain of coronavirus existed, Bill Gates warned last year that a pandemic that the world had not seen before would emerge.

Appearing in Netflix documentary The Next Pandemic, the billionaire warned the world was ill-prepared to deal with the implications of such a virus.

He said: “If a disease comes along that we haven’t seen before, typically it would take four or five years to come up with a vaccine against that disease.

“And new technologies might shorten those times.

“When a pandemic comes along of any size, we always look back and wish we invested more.”

Last year, a panel led by the ex-chief of the WHO, released a stark report warning of the danger of a lethal respiratory pathogen, dubbed Disease X.

They predicted that it could kill between 50 and 80 million people across the world.

 People wear protective face masks in front of a closed school in Italy, where two people have died from coronavirus

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People wear protective face masks in front of a closed school in Italy, where two people have died from coronavirusCredit: EPA
 People wear protective masks at Venice Carnival, which was cancelled after an outbreak of coronavirus

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People wear protective masks at Venice Carnival, which was cancelled after an outbreak of coronavirusCredit: ohad zwigenberg

The 15 public health leaders criticised a “cycle of panic and neglect” which they say has characterised responses to health emergencies.

Meanwhile, the Coalition of Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) said it was looking for funding applications for platforms capable of developing vaccines to combat the threat.

Speaking in October last year, Richard Hatchett, CEO of the CEPI, said: “We can be sure that another epidemic is on the horizon. It is not a case of if, but when.

“We need to be prepared. We need to invest in platform technologies that can be used to quickly respond to the emergence of a pathogen with epidemic potential.”

‘More deadly than Ebola’

In 2018, the WHO classified the impending Disease X as more deadly than Ebola and Lassa fever.

According to a report by the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board, such a pandemic could wipe out between 50 and 80 million people, as well as five per cent of the global economy.

The report added that as the world has become increasingly interconnected, such a pathogen could spread around the globe within 36 to 50 hours.

While some governments and agencies have made efforts to prepare for disease outbreaks since the devastating 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa that left over 10,000 dead, those efforts are “grossly insufficient,” the report said.

In the case of a pandemic, many national health systems – particularly in poor countries – would collapse.

The WHO also warned early last year that another flu pandemic – which is caused by airborne viruses – is inevitable, and said the world should prepare for it.

Just 12 months later, in December 2019, the outbreak of the new coronavirus emerged in Wuhan, China.

 Passengers believed to be from the cruise pictured on their journey back to the UK

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Passengers believed to be from the cruise pictured on their journey back to the UKCredit: PA:Press Association
 UK health bosses have said the passengers were infected on the cruise

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UK health bosses have said the passengers were infected on the cruiseCredit: EPA

 

It has since infected almost 80,000 people, including 13 positive cases in the UK.

Meanwhile, four Brits rescued from a plague cruise ship off Japan have tested positive for the deadly coronavirus.
A total of 32 evacuees were flown home to a quarantine block at Arrowe Park Hospital after being plucked from the Diamond Princess cruise liner in Japan.

Dr Bharat Pankhania says ‘it’s only a matter of time before WHO says Coronavirus is  a global pandemic’





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