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Coronavirus death rate could peak in UK at Easter


Matt Hancock, health secretary, has indicated that he thinks Britain’s coronavirus death rate could peak over the Easter weekend as the country recorded a new daily high of 684 hospital fatalities from the disease.

Mr Hancock said the virus “continues its grim march” but after a week in which the government’s handling of the crisis has faced strong criticism, there were some notes of optimism amid the rising death toll.

When asked about reports that the death rate could peak on Easter Sunday, Mr Hancock told Sky News: “I defer to the scientists on the exact predictions. I’m not going to steer you away from that. That is one perfectly possible outcome.”

Later, Mr Hancock told a press conference in Downing Street that his answer had been “over-interpreted”, but a peak on April 12 would be the kind of timescale that might be expected if the tough social distancing measures introduced by the government on March 23 were working effectively.

Jonathan Van Tam, deputy chief medical officer, said the timing of the peak of the outbreak depended on people sticking to instructions to stay at home, but added: “I hope it will be soon.”

Prof Van Tam added that there was no imminent risk of the NHS running out of ventilators to treat patients requiring intensive care, even though new orders were only just starting to trickle into hospitals: “I don’t think we are anywhere close to that kind of scenario, ” he said.

Mr Hancock said that more than 2,000 critical-care beds were still available in existing NHS hospitals. Earlier in the day he opened the new Nightingale hospital in the ExCeL centre in east London, with space for 4,000 beds.

But the NHS continues to suffer from a lack of testing capacity, in spite of Mr Hancock’s promise on Thursday to scale up capacity to 100,000 a day by the end of April.

He said he had placed a provisional order for 17.5m antibody tests — used to assess if someone has previously had the disease — but admitted that none of them had so far been shown to be sufficiently reliable to put into use.

“We will only use them if they work,” he said. Referring to a conference call on Friday with other health ministers from G7 countries. “No G7 country has found a home antibody test that works.”

Mr Hancock’s comments came before the latest government figures showed that another 684 people had died in hospital from the virus, the biggest jump in the reported daily death toll since the outbreak began. The total number of deaths increased to 3,605.

Boris Johnson will review the effectiveness of the lockdown after the Easter weekend. He will be guided by scientific advice, but his allies do not expect any early lifting of the current restrictions.

Hospitals are expected to face acute pressure well after any peak in the disease, given that seriously ill patients will have to remain for some time in intensive care after their admission.

The prime minister, who is still self-isolating with the virus in Downing Street, issued a video appeal via Twitter to the public not to take advantage of the warm weather forecast for this weekend by going outdoors.

Mr Johnson, who has an above-average temperature, said it was vital that people continued to stay at home to bear down on the virus and alleviate pressure on the NHS.

“Please, please, stick with the guidance now,” Mr Johnson said. The prime minister said he could understand why people, especially with children, would want to go outside this weekend, but added: “I would urge you not to do that.”

The Queen will address the country on Sunday evening in an attempt to maintain a sense of national effort to defeat the virus, as the country prepares for a third week of lockdown.

Meanwhile, Prof Van Tam announced that three new clinical trials, using existing medicines as the possible basis for treating coronavirus, were under way and that some 900 volunteers had agreed to take part in trials, but Mr Hancock said more were needed.

 





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