CORONAVIRUS cases “peaked two weeks ago” in the UK – but social distancing will be indefinite, a top Government advisor is warning.
Professor Neil Ferguson, whose modelling has informed the UK’s coronavirus strategy, revealed there were some first signs that lockdown in the UK may be working.
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However, he said it is too early to relax the draconian measures – and a significant level of social distancing is likely to remain until a vaccine is available.
It comes as the Government are expected to announce a three-week extension to the coronavirus lockdown later today.
Speaking on Radio 4’s Today programme, Prof Ferguson said: “I think actually the daily number of infections peaked two weeks ago, the issue we have is we really see cases in hospital at the moment we don’t have community surveillance and so that is delayed by about two weeks.
“But I think all the statistics now are basically pointing in the right direction.
“What we don’t know is quite how quickly numbers will decline at this point but numbers of new admissions to hospital seems to have been declining for over a week at this point.
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“It’s encouraging news but it’s too early to certainly relax.”
The Government is poised to extend the UK’s coronavirus lockdown until at least May 7 in an announcement to be made later today.
And Prof Ferguson warned that it will not be possible to relax the lockdown until a significant infrastructure was in place.
Discussing whether lockdown measures could be eased after another three weeks, Prof Ferguson added: “I think that will very much depend on quite how quickly case numbers go down, and that does require us to get on top of things like transmission rates in hospitals and care homes.
It’s too early to certainly relax
Professor Neil Ferguson
“I think the other thing I would say is that it really requires a single-minded emphasis in Government and the health system on scaling up testing and putting in place the ability to track down cases in the community and contact-trace.
“Because without that, our estimates show we have relatively little leeway; if we relax measures too much then we’ll see a resurgence of transmission.
“What we really need is the ability to put something in their place. If we want to reopen schools, let people get back to work, then we need to keep transmission down in another manner.
“And I should say, it’s not going to be going back to normal. We will have to maintain some level of social distancing, a significant level of social distancing, probably indefinitely until we have a vaccine available.”
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Asked whether lockdown measures could be continued again in three weeks’ time, he said: “I think we will take each step as it comes – I don’t have a crystal ball to say how rapidly cases decline.
“All I would say is we have limited leeway to release current measures unless we have something new to put in their place.”
Prof Ferguson admitted there were some first signs that social distancing measure in the UK may be working, with trends such as the number of calls to 999, 111 and admissions to hospital beginning to flatten.
But he claimed more needed to be done to ensure the UK could leave lockdown safely and he urged the Government to launch a “command and control centre”.
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“I would actually say we need to put in place an infrastructure, a command and control structure and a novel organisation for this,” he said.
“I’m reminded that we had a department for Brexit the Government – that was a major national emergency as it were.
“And we’re faced with something that at the moment even larger than Brexit yet I don’t see quite the same evidence for that level of organisation.
“I’d like to see measures accelerated. There needs to be more coordination I think.
“That may be going on, I say I don’t have unique insight but I think it could be enhanced.”
Health Secretary Matt Hancock this week announced the development of a new contact-tracing app that would let people enter their personal health data, recent contacts and coronavirus symptoms.
However, Prof Ferguson suggested that any tracing provided by mobile phone apps would have to be supplemented by a “small army” of people-testing and tracing.
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“In my view we need to move to a system where those people can actually be tested and know when they are infected,” he said.
“I think that will improve people’s acceptance of those measures of restrictions. But it will then also allow us to trace their immediate contacts.
“And that can be done partly through the phone apps which have been mentioned in recent days but we also think we will need to be supplemented by frankly a small army of people doing manual contact tracing, identifying contacts and asking those contacts to isolate as well.”
Dominic Raab, who is standing in for Prime Minister Boris Johnson while he recovers from Covid-19, is set to tell Brits today that they will have to remain at home for at least another three weeks as ministers grapple with an exit strategy.
The lockdown has to be reviewed by law every three weeks, and the first review must be carried out by today at the latest.
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Despite this, Government officials have already made clear there is next to zero chance of restrictions being lifted this week.
Work and Pensions Secretary Therese Coffey warned earlier this week: “We’re talking about a battle against coronavirus that isn’t gong to be over in weeks – it will take months.”
And Chief Scientific Advisor Sir Patrick Vallance warned Britain must first be “firmly on the other side” of the peak of new cases and deaths.
