Coronavirus and optimism bias: Why some people are certain they won’t catch Covid-19

While coronavirus paranoia is prompting mask-clad commuters to avoid any hint of a cough or sneeze on public transport, there are still those who nonchalantly declare: “I won’t get it.”

Worldwide, around 115,000 people have caught Covid-19 since the start of the outbreak – and though the majority have been in mainland China, health officials have warned “many thousands”  will be infected here in the UK. A worst case scenario document, from the National Security Communications team, suggested in the gravest circumstances that some 80 per cent of the population here will be hit.

The rabid desperation for hand sanitiser – and empty supermarket shelves once stocked with toilet paper – can be seen as an indicator that swathes of the population are taking the prospect seriously. But despite the predictions – coinciding with repeated advice from officials to wash our hands and avoid touching our faces – there are those who seem aloof to the situation.

Optimism or optimistic bias – a feeling that positive things are more likely than negative to happen to us – may explain the phenomena.

“Research shows that people overwhelmingly think that bad things are not going to happen to them,” Dr Marie Helweg-Larsen, a professor of psychology at Dickinson College, told the Standard.

“Optimistic bias refers to the mindset you are at less risk than other people.

“It’s everything from experiencing a natural disaster, to getting cancer to experiencing domestic violence. Whatever people think their risk is, [they think] it’s less than other people.”

That said, this same mental stance could apply to the spread of Covid-19, despite research into that specifically not yet having been conducted. And though to those of an anxious persuasion this might seem delusional, Dr Helweg-Larsen adds that there is generally a level of rationalisation.

“It’s not that people who are older think that they’re less at risk than younger people to coronavirus,” she said.

“But if you ask their risk compared to other older people they’ll think it’s less than that.

“It’s not a delusion, it’s like rose coloured glasses.”

But why is it people feel that way? Dr Tali Sharot, who wrote a book on the optimism bias, explained that looking forward to good things intrinsically puts us in a better mood. The “pure act of anticipation makes us happy”.

“In fact, without the optimism bias, we would all be slightly depressed,” Dr Sharot, a professor cognitive neuroscientist at the University College of London’s department of experimental psychology, said in a 2012 Ted talk.

Speaking to the Standard, Dr Sharot people said the thought process also gave people “a sense of control”.

“They have more sense that they control the future than they actually do,” she said.

Having such an outset can be a driver for success – if you believe you will do well, then you might work harder, which in turn could lead to prosperity.

“Optimists are more successful in many different domains,” she said.

“It has a positive impact on your mental and physical health.”

Dr Helweg-Larsen explained how some level of hope for the best can be necessary for day-to-day life.

“If every time you put your keys in the car you think, ‘today I’m going to die in a car accident,’ that would be debilitating,” she said. However, that shouldn’t mean you go so far that you don’t put on your seatbelt. Linking that to Covid-19, she said: “People can say other people are overreacting.

“They shouldn’t then use that to go to northern Italy and then go to a nursing home.”

There lies the crux of what can make the perspective an issue in this situation – coronavirus can impact others.

Smokers, for example, often display optimism bias. They know the risks of the habit but have justified why it’s okay for them to keep it up. And, though second-hand smoke is an issue, that decision largely hurts them more than anyone else.

However, if certainty you won’t suffer from Covid-19 stops you from taking precautions against its spread, there may be a broader impact to that.

“On coronavirus, your bad behaviour is affecting vulnerable people,” Dr Helweg-Larsen said.

Dr Anneli Jefferson, a lecturer at Cardiff University whose research focuses on the philosophy of psychology and moral philosophy, said an issue in people’s outlook may be weighing up their personal risk factor should they catch the virus, versus the ramifications for others.

“When people think of bad things happening, they think of the stereotypical person. They think of the stereotypical person who might get that,” she told the Standard.

This could perhaps lead younger people who are in reasonable health to consider their risk of death from the virus low and therefore not think about the ramifications of becoming a carrier.

“On a personal level you perhaps don’t really feel at risk,” she said. “That doesn’t mean you aren’t a risk to others. I don’t feel people are making that link – which is probably reinforced by the stereotypes.”

Dr Sharot agreed that people would usually act upon personal risk – though said at the moment it did appear people were acting for the wider community. 

“In many cases, people act because of the risk to themselves,” she said.

“In this case you do see people acting for the common good.”

Expanding on the underestimation of adverse outcomes to actions, Dr Sharot did suggest that perhaps people weren’t considering the broader impacts – some of which could add to their personal risk.

Referencing potential strains on healthcare systems, she said: “There are other risks that might be underestimated. Maybe you won’t be able to get treatment on other issues if you need it.”

And on those wider hurdles, Dr Sharot said that perhaps mindset could also perhaps impact wider response plans. For example, members of governments the world over might be impacted by the bias – which could explain any delays in action to tackle the spread.

“Optimism bias is something that most of us have,” she said, suggesting studies showed it could be around 80 per cent.

“That would impact people in government, as well as people making decisions for themselves.”

On the widespread nature of the outlook she said that should the situation worsen its impact could dissipate.

“If you feel at threat, the optimism bias really starts to go away,” she said. Dr Sharot alluded that perhaps as areas become worse-hit, such as northern Italy, people might feel a more imminent threat.

“The optimism bias is less likely to show in that case, if you’re in a very threatening situation.”

Giving her thoughts on why people might approach negative situations with optimism, Dr Jefferson suggested the reason might be simpler than some pontificate.

“We just don’t particularly like the thought of bad things happening to us,” she said.

“When there is opportunity and we can get away with not thinking bad things will happen to us we will go on the side that things will be fine.”

Speculating further on the base reasons for this, she added: “We may have developed this tendency just because we’re afraid of death. It’s a way to live life without people fearing death.”