China’s Economy to Stabilize in 2020, Goldman Sachs Says

© Reuters. China’s Economy to Stabilize in 2020, Goldman Sachs Says

(Bloomberg) — An easing in trade tensions, a bottoming-out of global manufacturing activity and the continuation of cautious policy support will aid the stabilization in China’s economy next year, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:).

The world’s second-largest economy will grow by 5.8% next year, and will be helped by resilient consumer spending, economists including Andrew Tilton and Hui Shan wrote in their 2020 outlook published Friday. The consensus among economists surveyed by Bloomberg for 2020 output growth is 5.9%

Stabilization, or even a “weak sequential reacceleration” as seen by Goldman next year would represent a good outcome for China’s policy makers, who have grappled with the combined downward effects of their own efforts to curb financial risks and the confidence-sapping impact of the trade war through the course of 2019.

Acknowledging that the People’s Bank of China and the fiscal authorities have stepped up support this year, the Goldman economists still see the need for further easing in 2020, “with an emphasis on fiscal measures.”

There has been a “shift in domestic policy towards a more conservative stance that puts relatively more weight on risk control and sustainability, and accepts slightly lower growth as the price for reduced tail risk,” the economists wrote. “Chinese policy makers appear to be increasingly focused on “playing the long game” in terms of their policy settings.”

The rise in China’s consumer price inflation in the course of the swine fever outbreak this year has presented a challenge to policy makers as it has been coupled with deflation in the industrial sector. For 2020, that situation is likely to continue, the economists wrote, with a recovery in the stock of sows aiding an easing of headline inflation in the second half of 2020. Only a moderate improvement in producer-price deflation is expected, they argued.

READ  Google to allow Android users in Europe choose default search engine

The biggest risk to this picture of stabilization is a breakdown in the U.S.-China trade talks.

“Both sides have an incentive to bargain aggressively and each appears to perceive it has the advantage,” according to the report. “We see the next few weeks as the critical phase, before the scheduled December 15 tariff implementation.”

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story: Jeffrey Black in Hong Kong at

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at, Jiyeun Lee

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.


Leave a Reply